Ngaba ukongezwa kwezihlalo kunye neqela lokuqala ngokwephondo lithembekile?

Ukongezwa kwezihlalo kunye "neqela lokuqala kwiphondo ngalinye" zihlala zenziwe kwidatha yepesenti yevoti enikezelwa luvavanyo oluthile okanye i-avareji. Amaxesha amaninzi, ezi zongezelelo zigxekwa njengeziyilwe ngokusulungekileyo.

Njengoko ingumba ophikisanayo, siza kuzama ukwenza isishwankathelo esilula kakhulu sezizathu ezixhasa zombini. Mhlawumbi ngale ndlela siya kuyazi into esinokuyilindela nesingayilindelanga ekudibaneni kwezihlalo.

INGABA I-EXTRAPOLATIONS YINTO EYINGQIWEYO?

Hayi abekho njalo. I-extrapolations (ubuncinci ukuba yenziwe kakuhle) isekelwe kwidatha evela kunyulo lokugqibela olubanjwe (kwimeko yeCongress, umzekelo, isekelwe kwidatha evela kwi-26-J-2016 ukhetho), kwaye bathathela ingqalelo inyani yokwenyani: yokuba ayingawo onke amaphondo avota ngokufanayo nokuba lo mahluko wokuvota uyagcinwa, ngokusisiseko, ekuhambeni kwexesha.

Ke ngoko, kunikwe idatha yophando, kunokwenzeka ukuba kukhutshwe i-extrapolate umgca ukuzama ukufumanisa ezona ziphumo zinokwenzeka kwiphondo ngalinye, kwaye ukusuka apho kuqikelelwa ulwabiwo oluthile lwezihlalo.

Ngaba le extrapolation iluncedo?

Ewe, iluncedo kakhulu. Idatha eyinikezelayo iya kuthembeka ngakumbi kwaye iya kusondela kwinyani kunokuba ukuba asizange sithathele ingqalelo iyantlukwano yangaphambili phakathi kwamaphondo.

Ngaba ichanekile?

Hayi. Ukusebenzisa i-extrapolation yophando lwesizwe ukuxoxa ukuba ngaba le nto okanye iqela liphumelele e-Badajoz okanye i-Huesca ayinankathalo. Iimephu zaseSpain ezibonelelwayo zinika umfanekiso othembekileyo opheleleyo, kodwa, kwelinye icala, banokuthi basilele kwaye bakwenze oko ngokulusizi ngakumbi kwiphondo elincinci abanyulelwe lona.

Oku akuthethi ukuba ulwabiwo lwezihlalo ukuba extrapolations zinika lilize, kuba Izitenxa ezenzeka kwamanye amaphondo zilungiswa kakhulu kukutenxa kwelinye icala kwamanye.. Yiyo loo nto iindlela ezahlukeneyo ze-extrapolation zikholisa ukunika, ngokumangalisayo, uqikelelo lwezihlalo ezifanayo, nangona imephu yeqela lokuqala ngokwephondo abayinikezelayo. kubonakala yahluke kakhulu.

Ungayiphucula njani i-extrapolation?

Ubuchule besiqhelo bokuyila, obubandakanya ukusetyenziswa ngokulula kwindawo nganye yovoto ipesenti efanayo yokutenxa kwihlabathi ebonwa kwiqela ngalinye kwinqanaba lesizwe, kukhokelela kwiimpazamo, kwiziphumo ezingenakwenzeka (ngaphezu kwe-100% yevoti esemthethweni kwezinye iindawo, umzekelo) , kwaye ayithatheli ngqalelo into yokuba inxalenye yokutenxa ayilulo udidi kodwa ilubungakanani, ayilingani kodwa ihambelana kuzo zonke iingingqi zovoto. Ngobu buchule, umzekelo, iqela elikhulu elisuka kwi-20% ukuya kwi-40% yeevoti kwinqanaba likazwelonke ukusuka kunyulo oludlulileyo ukuya kolona phando lwakutsha nje, lingasuka kwi-40% ukuya kwi-80% yevoti kwiphondo omnye ofumana ezona voti zininzi kunye ne-3% ukuya kwi-6% kweyona ifumana kancinci, umzekelo. Iziphumo ezinjalo azihambelani nenyani. Singavumelana sonke, ngengqiqo elula, ukuba eyona pesenti yokwenene kwiphondo lokuqala iya kuba ngaphantsi kwama-80% kwaye okwesibini ibe ngaphezulu kwe-6%.

Yiyo loo nto e-Electomania siye sayiphucula indlela yethu yokudibanisa i-extrapolation kulo nyaka uphelileyo, sazisa into exubeneyo eyenza ukuba nomsindo kuguquke ngokulinganayo.

Uphuculo lwesibini olunokuthi lwaziswe, nangona luntsonkothile kakhulu ngokobuchwephesha kwaye luyingozi, kukuthathela ingqalelo inguquko yenqila ngalinye ngokophando lwakutsha nje lolunye unyulo (lomasipala, lommandla) okanye, ngcono noko, iziphumo ezilandelayo olunye unyulo.

Ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo, ukuba olu phuculo luphunyezwe kakuhle, luya kuyicokisa ngakumbi idatha. Into enzima, into ekhohlakeleyo, kukudibanisa loo datha ngasemva zendawo kunye nabo beqela lesizwe, kunye nokungagqithisi okanye kusilela kubunzima obunikwe kolu lungiso lwe-extrapolation ngokubanzi.

Imihlathi emibini edlulileyo ichaza iinyaniso ezintsonkothileyo ezingafanelanga ukuba zichazwe ngokubhekele phaya, kwaye ezingafuneki nokuba ziqondwe ngokupheleleyo. Kufuneka nje ugcine umbono osisiseko: extrapolating kakuhle kunzima, kwaye ukuyenza kakuhle kakhulu kunzima ngakumbi kuba kufuna uhlengahlengiso kakuhle kakhulu.

Zeziphi ezinye izinto eziphembelela ukuthembeka kwe-extrapolation?

Umba osisiseko ngu ixesha.

Ukuphaphazela kwamaphiko ebhabhathane ePeru ekugqibeleni kuya kuba nefuthe kwimozulu yaseSiberia, kuphela kwemeko yokuba sinike loo mpembelelo ixesha elaneleyo lokuzenza. Ngokunjalo, iziphumo zonyulo ziya kuba mbalwa kwaye zingathembeki njengoko ixesha lihamba, kuba kukho "amabhabhathane" amaninzi abetha amaphiko azo kwaye enze iphondo ngalinye liguquke ngendlela yalo. Ngaloo ndlela, "imozulu" yonyulo lwexesha elizayo iya kuba, njengoko iinyanga zihamba, zininzi kwaye zingalindelekanga kwinqanaba lendawo, nangona sineenkcukacha ezithembekileyo zehlabathi.

Unyulo oluqhutywe kwinyanga enye emva konyulo jikelele luya kuba lula ukugqithiswa, kwaye umphumo we-extrapolation uya kuqiniseka ngakumbi kunezo zenziwe kwiminyaka emine kamva.

Umzekelo wale nto, uthathwa ngokugqithisileyo, yayilunyulo lomongameli waseMelika, apho iziphumo ze-51 ye-Union States zifakwe ngabavoti, ngokuyinxenye, kwidatha yelizwe jikelele. Inkqubo yonyulo yaseMelika enomdla (kunye nengalunganga) yazandisa iimpazamo zolu hlaziyo, kwaye yanika uTrump uloyiso kubameli engakhange asondele nakude kakhulu kwiivoti. Unyulo aluzange lusilele kwihlabathi lonke kolo nyulo: ngokuchaseneyo, inqanaba labo lempumelelo lalilikhulu kakhulu.

Ngokomzekelo, uNate Silver, phantse "wabethelela" zonke iziphumo zikaHillary Clinton kunye noDonald Trump. Kodwa wenza impazamo ekwabeleni amazwe aphambili kwaye ngaloo ndlela amathuba oloyiso kuye ngamnye:

Uqikelelo...

... kunye nenyani

Apho iiDemokhrasi ziye zaphumelela, zakwenza oko ngomda omkhulu kunoko bekulindelwe, kodwa oko akuzange kubanike abameli abangakumbi, ngelixa apho kwakulindeleke ukuba iqhina liqhawuke, laphulwa, ngokungalindelekanga, ngokuthanda amaRiphabhlikhi, abathi ngaloo ndlela bavuna abameli abaninzi ngakumbi kunabo. kulindeleke.. Ngoko, Ngelixa beyilungisa kwihlabathi jikelele, abavoti benza iimpazamo ezinkulu ekuhlaleni.

Ukuphaphatheka kwamaphiko ebhabhathane lesiphithiphithi kwathanda uTrump kwaye kwasifundisa into esisiseko: masingakhathaleli kakhulu iinkcukacha, kuba mhlawumbi azilunganga. Masibambelele kumfanekiso oqhelekileyo, kuba mhlawumbi uya kuchaneka.

Kwaye enye into. Isiphumo sebhabhathane", Amandla esiphithiphithi kwiziphumo ezigqwethekileyo makhulu kwiinkqubo zonyulo ezinkulu okanye ngabathunywa abafana nabase-United States, kodwa ilawuleka ngakumbi kwiinkqubo zolungelelwaniso. Ngethamsanqa, eSpain sinenkqubo engalinganiyo kangako kunaleyo yase-United States. Ke ii-extraplations zethu, nazo zonke iziphene zazo, zithembeke ngakumbi.

Imeko kuphela yokuba oku kube njalo kukuba ... kukuba ... ukuba uphando lwenziwe kakuhle. Masithembe ukuba balungile njengoqikelelo lukaNate Silver eUnited States.

Okwangoku, apha sishiya eyokugqibela epapashwe eSpain, nguCeleste-Tel, kunye nokwabelwa kwayo izihlalo kunye nokwandiswa kwethu ngamaphondo.

Siyayikholelwa, kodwa oko kusengqiqweni. Ingaba ucinga ntoni?

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