Ibhalansi ye-demoscopy kumjikelezo omtsha (IV): I-Podemos-Ciudadanos Comparison.

Enye yeempawu zemijikelo yezopolitiko inoveli kukungena kwabadlali abangenamsebenzi ukuza kuthi ga ngoku okanye abangekhoyo (i-exogenous volatility), okanye ubuncinci uhlengahlengiso olutsha lwemikhosi phakathi kwamaqela (i-endogenous volatility). Kweli nqaku siza kubona Indlela idemoskopi isondele ngayo kumaqela amatsha.

Kwimeko yomjikelezo wezopolitiko owasungulwa eSpain ngo-2014, kuchazwe Ngoku singaBemi njengamandla "asakhulayo": owokuqala kubo wazalwa ekuqaleni kwaloo nyaka kwaye owesibini wakwenza oko kwi-2006 kwi-Catalan sphere kodwa wayengeke enze ukutsiba kwibala lombuso. Siza kuhlukanisa izinto ezine ezibalulekileyo: unyulo lwaseYurophu, unyulo lwengingqi, unyulo loomasipala kunye nonyulo jikelele lwe-20-D.

Okokuqala sibona ukuba, Nangona uphando lwalujongela phantsi zombini iiPodemos kunye neCiudadanos, ukujongelwa phantsi kweyangaphambili kwakubonakala ngakumbi.: I-polls yeeveki ezimbini zangaphambili zamnika izihlalo ze-0.95 ngokomyinge, kwi-1 yeCiudadanos (ekugqibeleni i-5 yePodemos kunye ne-2 yokubunjwa kwe-orange). Ukuba sandisa ixesha lexesha kwiimvavanyo ezipapashwe kwiiveki ze-5 ngaphambi konyulo kwaye sijonge kuphela abo banike ipesenti yevoti kula maqela, i-Podemos ifumene i-2.11% yevoti, xa kuthelekiswa ne-2.4% yeCiudadanos (eyokugqibela iziphumo : 7.97% kunye ne-3.16%, ngokulandelanayo).

Ndiyathetha Kwiimeko ezingcono kakhulu, uphando luchonge omnye kwabavoti abane bePodemos (26.46%), ngelixa kwimeko yeCiudadanos bafikelele abathathu kwabane (75.95%).. Ubuncinci malunga neqela elimfusa, inxalenye yale yantlukwano ichazwa liphulo elikhulu lonyulo eliye laphunyezwa, ngokutsho kwabo babuzwayo kwi-CIS yasemva konyulo (i-30.9% ilinganisa iphulo lomgqatswa "njengelungileyo" okanye "kakhulu" kuhle ". I-Podemos, xa kuthelekiswa ne-9.4% ye-PP, i-7.1% ye-PSOE okanye i-5% ye-Ciudadanos).

Kulo unyulo lwengingqi iinkampani zabantu Babechanekile malunga nevoti yePodemos kwaye iphosakele kakhulu malunga nevoti yeCiudadanos. Ukuba singena nzulu kwiinjongo zokuvota ngokuthe ngqo, siya kufumana izinto ezinomdla ngakumbi. Njengoko uninzi lophando lungaboneleli ngedatha kwinjongo ethe ngqo, siphendukela kwidatha yeCIS.

Ukuqikelela injongo yokuvota ngokuthe ngqo kukuzimela ngakunye kwizihlalo ezisemngciphekweni (oko kukuthi, ukuba sisebenzisa nje ivoti ngqo ngaphandle kokongeza ubungakanani obuyimfuneko kubavoti abangaqinisekanga, iivoti ezifihliweyo, njl. njl.) sifumana isiphumo sezihlalo ezingama-68.09 zeCiudadanos kunye 103.55 yePodemos. Inani lePodemos linokuwela ngaphakathi kolungelelwaniso oluqhelekileyo, kuba nge-coefficient yokulinganisa malunga ne-1.28 siya kufumana umphumo wayo wokwenyani: izihlalo eziyi-133.

Ityala leCiudadanos, nangona kunjalo, lingaqhelekanga: liphumelele ukumelwa okuphantsi kunokuba liza kuphumelela ngokweCIS kuphela ngevoti ngqo. Ukuba sisebenzisa idatha kwiinkampani zokuvota, ukuthelekisa kuyamangalisa ngakumbi: umyinge weemvavanyo zengingqi ze-60 ezingapapashwa yi-CIS izibonelelo ze-Podemos 132.05 izihlalo kunye ne-Ciudadanos 123.2.

Idatha yePodemos ichanekile, izihlalo ze-133 sele zibonisiwe. Ngokuphathelele iCiudadanos, ezo 123.2 zawa ngokwenyani malunga nesiqingatha (68). Impazamo yolu bukhulu, kwaye ixhaphakile, ingabonakalisa iintsilelo ezibalulekileyo nokuba kuyilo lwesampulu okanye kwi-coefficient yokulinganisa eyabelwe i-Ciudadanos. Umxube wezo zombini izizathu nazo zinokwenzeka: kwimeko ye-CIS, i-coefficient yokulinganisa i-1.6 yongezwa kwinjongo esele iphezulu (iphezulu kakhulu kune-1.28 ye-Podemos), de ifikelele kwizihlalo ze-109 ezixelwe kwangaphambili kwingingqi. unyulo lomdlalo ka-Albert Rivera.

Kwizixeko ezisixhenxe ezicazululwe kummandla we unyulo loomasipala, I-candidacies ethandwayo yobumbano apho i-Podemos yayililungu ihlupheke i-17.74% yokungaxabiseki kwenani elipheleleyo lamabhunga ngelixa i-Ciudadanos, ngokuchaseneyo, ibhalise i-avareji ye-24.24% yamalungu ebhunga kuphando kunalawo aphunyeziweyo ekugqibeleni.

Kulo iinjengele ze-20-D, impazamo evumelana neCiudadanos ayinakuchazwa ngaphandle nje kokuba ihlazo. Emva kwembali yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuba lo mbutho uburhuqa kunyulo lwengingqi nolomasipala, abavoti, kude nokulungiswa kwempazamo yabo, bagqiba kwelokuba baqhubeke neqamza, banike izihlalo ezingama-73 kwiqela eliza kugqiba ukufumana ama-40. elona xhoba le-bubble orenji, kuba ibingaxabisekanga ngama-23.32% xa ithelekiswa neziphumo zayo zokugqibela.

Intetho esemthethweni yeengcali ezininzi (umzekelo uPablo Simón kunye noNarciso Michavila) kukuba lo mahluko ubangelwa ngokukodwa kwiphulo elikhulu lePodemos kunye nephulo elibi leCiudadanos okanye, ngokubanzi, ekucingeni ukuguquguquka okunokuthi kuchaphazele ngakumbi le midlalo. . Kodwa ezi zizathu azinako nakweyiphi na imeko ukuchaza ukutenxa okunjalo, ngakumbi xa abavoti becingelwa ukuba ngaphezu kwako konke banakho ukubamba iintsingiselo. Nangona kunjalo, phakathi kwephulo baqhubeka bebeka iiPodemos ubukhulu becala ngaphantsi kwamasekela angama-50 kunye neCiudadanos ngaphezu kwe-60.

Ngamafutshane, I-Ciudadanos ibe kwiqamza labantu abasisigxina ukusuka kwixesha apho "Singakwazi ekunene" kwachazwa njengoqikelelo kwaye kucingelwa ukuba kuyimfuneko. Nangona ukungabikho kwembali yonyulo kuya kulindeleka ukuba iinkampani zokuvota ziza kusebenzisa indlela efanayo kuzo zombini ukwakheka okuvelayo kunye nenye, inyaniso kukuba idatha ibonisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okunzulu, okuphindaphindiweyo nokungachazwanga kweCiudadanos.

Ewe I-Podemos, yayingaphantsi ngokumangalisayo kunyulo lwaseYurophu, unyulo jikelele kwaye kwakhona kugqatso umanyano ethandwayo kunyulo lomasipala, lo gama kunyulo lwengingqi kuphela unyulo wamnika ubunzima oluchanekileyo lonyulo.

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