UBiden uphumelele umjikelo wokuqala ngokuchasene noTrump

Njengoko sele sicacile malunga nabagqatswa ababini abaza kukhuphisana kumongameli wase-United States ngoNovemba, ngoku amaninzi amaziko ohlalutyo aseMntla Melika sele egxile ekuhlalutyeni izinto ezinokwenzeka kuzo zombini, i IRiphabhlikhi kunye nomkhuseli wesikhundla, uDonald Trump, kunye nomgqatswa weDemokhrasi, uJoe Biden. Abantu abancinci ababini abakwiminyaka yabo yamashumi asixhenxe abanqwenela ukufikelela kumashumi asibhozo (okanye phantse) abahlala kwi-White House.

Xa kuqhambuka imeko ye-COVID-19Kanye ngoMatshi, kwakubonakala ngathi Iitafile zazijika zixhasa uTrump, umongameli wangoku, komnye umzekelo we "flag effect 🚩" eyaziwayo eyenzeka kumazwe amaninzi aphambili ehlabathi.

A okokuqala ka-Aprili trump sele ibhalisiwe, okokuqala kwiminyaka emithathu, amazinga angathandwa angaphantsi kwama-50%, kwaye wayebonakala ekwimeko yokuya nangakumbi. Kodwa ukusukela ngoko ubhubhane ubuqhubeka elizweni, kwaye amanye amazwe (eNew York) afikelela kwinqanaba lokufa kwinqanaba leLombardy okanye iMadrid, kwaye, kunye iingxelo ezitenxileyo kunye umfanekiso wentlalo yokwahlukana nto leyo edala isimo sengqondo sabaninzi, ngakumbi kumbindi welizwe, ukuchasa nakuphi na ukuvalelwa okanye uthintelo lwenkululeko yokuhambahamba, kubonakala ngathi kubangele ukuba buyela kuluvo loluntu, ngoku engamvumiyo umongameli kwakhona ngomyinge wamanqaku aphantse abe lishumi.

¿Zeziphi iziphumo ezinokuthi le nguquko ibe nayo kumlo we-White House??

Las unyulo lukamongameli Ngaba ngokwenene, ezininzi ukhetho ezahlukeneyo yobuninzi bendalo Mangaphi amazwe anawo umanyano? kuba ngamnye kubo wonyula abathunywa kunyulo lukamongameli kwi-bloc, oko kukuthi, bonke babelwa umgqatswa ophumelele uloyiso kurhulumente. Ngoko, ngokomgaqo, kubonakala kucacile ukuba ICalifornia iya kunika abameli bayo abangama-55 kwiBidenngexesha I-Texas yayiza kumnika i-38 yayo, ngokupheleleyo, kwixilongo...kunye nokunye ukuya kutsho kwikhulu kunye nolonyulo oluninzi olwahlukileyo (ngaphandle kwezinto ezincinci ezingafanelanga ukungena kuzo).

Ekugqibeleni, njengoko kusengqiqweni, kwimeko apho kusondele ukudibana kwiivoti kwinqanaba likazwelonke, Iya kuba yimimandla ephakathi (i-swing states) eya kuthatha isigqibo, kwaye umjikelo omkhulu okanye ongaphantsi umviwa ngamnye aphumelele ngawo kwabanye ayisayi kuba namsebenzi. Ngo-2016, umzekelo, uTrump waphumelela phantse kuwo onke amazwe ajingi, kwaye wakwenza oko ngomda omncinci weevoti ezingamawaka ambalwa kwindawo nganye. UHillary Clinton akazange asebenzise nto ukuvuna ukuya kuthi ga kwizigidi ezithathu zeevoti ezongezelelweyo kwilizwe liphela.

Ke, ukuba loo mihla iyalingana, njengoko iivoti zinjalo namhlanje, kubonakala ngathi amazwe anokuthi athathe isigqibo ngamathandathu kuphela...

… ngenxa yokuba abanye baya kukhetha ngokucacileyo i-orioori yomgqatswa omnye okanye omnye, kwaye abanelanga ukufikelela kuninzi lwabathunywa abangama-270 abayimfuneko ukuba bonyulwe njengomongameli.

Kodwa,ii-polls zilungelelene ngokwenene?

Nasi isishwankathelo soqikelelo olwenziwayo ngoku:

En bomvu nzulu, iivoti ezinokuthi "zikhuseleke" kuzo Ixilongo, nangaphakathi blue kakhulu ze Biden. Izithambiso zibonisa ubunzulu obuncinci kwicala elinye okanye kwelinye, kwaye umhlophe ubonisa iqhina okanye iqhina.

Njengoko sibona, kuphela uqikelelo lwe I-Lean Tossup y IVoti yoMninzi Ngokucacileyo bayayithanda iBiden. Ezo ze I-Bitecofer y JHK Bakwakunika i-advanteji, kodwa ingabi sigqibo ngokupheleleyo. Ngokuchasene noko, I-CNalysis iqikelela umzobo phantse igqibelele.

Okwangoku akukho mntu waziyo ukubetha uTrump. Kodwa kwiiveki ezintathu ezidlulileyo abanye baye benza, kwaye masikhumbule ukuba kusekho ngaphezulu kweenyanga ezintandathu ukuba kuvotwe.