Unyulo eJamani: imibutho emihlanu isenokwenzeka

Umhla wonyulo lwaseJamani uyaqhubeka nokusondela NgoSeptemba 24. AmaJamani aya kunyula malunga Amalungu angama-630 eBundestag (indlu yamasekela), kwaye aba baya kutyumba ingqonyela isithuba seminyaka emine.

I-CDU/CSU ka-Angela Merkel igcina isikhokelo esitofotofo ngaphezulu kwe-SPD kaSchulz, kodwa ukude nesininzi esicingelwayo ekungekho mntu ucinga ngaso. Ngoko ke, ngaphezu kokuba ngubani oza kuphumelela, umcimbi ukwazi ukuba yintoni ukulungelelaniswa kwemikhosi eya kuvela kwi-Bundestag elandelayo, ukugqiba ukuba yiyiphi intsebenziswano karhulumente enokuba yintoni.

Okwangoku, ii-polls zamva nje zinje:

Umthombo: http://www.wahlrecht.de

Amaqela amabini aphambili asezantsi ngandlel’ ithile kuneminyaka emine eyadlulayo, kodwa ngokusisiseko aphinda iziphumo.  Undoqo sisithintelo sonyulo se-5% yeevoti. Amaqela angafikeleli kwelo nani avele akhutshelwe ngaphandle epalamente, nto leyo ethetha ukuba kungalahleka izigidi zeevoti, oko kwanyusa inani lamasekela kumaqela amakhulu. Oko kwenzeka kwiminyaka emine eyadlulayo ngenkululeko ye-FDP, kunye nelungelo elinzima le-AfD. Omabini la maqela afumene iivoti ezingaphezulu kwezigidi ezibini kwaye phantse i-5% yevoti, kodwa bekunganelanga ukuphumelela isihlalo esinye.

Ngesi sihlandlo, nangona kunjalo, kubonakala ngathi i-liberals kunye nabanelungelo elikude baya kukwazi ukungena epalamente, nto leyo eyenza umdlalo wokubambisana okunokwenzeka ube nzima ngakumbi, kwinkqubo efana neJamani apho ukuhanjiswa kwezihlalo kuhambelana kakhulu, kwaye ngubani ofikelelayo. ukuba 5% omlingo unganqwenela malunga namasekela angamashumi amane. Amanye amaqela amabini “amancinci”, iphiko lasekhohlo elithi “Die Linke” kunye neengcali zokusingqongileyo “Grüne”, baya kuphinda baphinde iziphumo zabo kwiminyaka emine eyadlulayo, ngokokuvota.

Umndilili olungiselelwe yi-Pollytix ubonisa le nguqulelo kuphando lweminyaka emine edlulileyo:

Umphumo (okwexeshana) wokhetho lukaSchulz yi-Social Democrats ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka ubonakala ngokucacileyo, kunye nezihlandlo eziphakamileyo zelungelo eligqithisileyo (umgca ohlaza okwesibhakabhaka) kunye nohlaza (umgca oluhlaza) ngexesha le-2016.

Kodwa ngoku konke okwenzekileyo, kwaye kukho utyekelo kwakhona kwicala elingafezekanga lenkqubo yamaqela amabini (2+4). Ifoto yomzuzwana ibonisa indawo yesithathu ngakwesobunxele (umgca omfusa), kunye ne-liberals ibekwe kakuhle (umgca ophuzi). Ngokuphathelele kumdlalo womanyano, ezona zinokwenzeka namhlanje ziya kuba zezi zilandelayo:

Pollytix.eu idatha

Ukukhutshwa kwakhona okunokwenzeka "komdibaniso omkhulu" phakathi kweedemokhrasi kwezentlalo kunye needemokhrasi zamaKristu ezilawula iJamani, zonwabela uninzi, kunye ne-CDU kaMerkel njengeqela eliphambili.

Kodwa, kuya kubakho emva konyulo ezinye iindlela?

Ngomgaqo weqela le-AfD, oku kulandelayo kunokuphononongwa:

• Isiphumo se amaqela amathathu “asekhohlo” Ngoku lelona xesha lincinci linokwenzeka, kuba lingaswela phantse i-10% yeevoti ukufumana uninzi. Ngokomgaqo, kuphela ukukhuthazwa okumangalisayo kukaSchulz, njengaleyo yenziwa ngexesha lasebusika, okunokuthi kuphinde kuphinde kwenzeke.
• Iinkululeko, eziye zaphakama mva nje, zisondele ekubeni zikwazi ukubuyisela indima yazo yakudala njengehenjisi. Isimbuku seevoti zabo kunye nekaMerkel sele kuza kuzuza uninzi. Wayeza kufuna kuphela izihlalo ezimbalwa kunezo zinikwa uvoto.
• Ukuba Umanyano lweCDU/liberals akafikelelanga kwizihlalo eziyimfuneko, iiGreens, abaye batshintsha kwiminyaka yamuva ukuya kwizikhundla ezigxininisekileyo kunye nepragmatic, banokubonelela ngeevoti eziyimfuneko kwintsebenziswano yeendlela ezintathu.
• Kukwakho nentelekelelo, ngokuthe ngqo, kunye nenokwenzeka imanyano phakathi kweMerkel kunye nemifuno ukuba amaqela omabini ehlangene afumene isibini samanqaku epesenti yeevoti ezingaphezulu kunezo ziqikelelwe ngovoto.

Kushiyeke inyanga enesiqingatha de kufike unyulo kwaye ibhalansi isenokwahluka. Kwiimeko ezininzi umahluko phakathi kwamathuba athile kunye nabanye kuya kuxhomekeka kwisiqingatha seshumi sepesenti yevoti kunye nezihlalo ezimbalwa kwiBundestag. Kusekuninzi ekufuneka kwenziwe isigqibo.