EFransi, ngaba iMelenchon ikhokela "impembelelo yeCarmena"?

Umkhondo wemihla ngemihla we-OpinionWay womjikelo wokuqala wonyulo lukamongameli eFransi usandula ukupapashwa kwaye ubonisa ukwehla okuncinci kwe-Marine Le Pen kunye nokunyuka UJean Luc Melenchon, ofikelela kwi-16% kwaye ngamanqaku amane emva kweFillon.

Uvoto luqala ukubonisa iimpawu zokudluliselwa kwabavoti phakathi kweLe Pen, iMacron kunye neMelenchon. inokuba yintsholongwane ye "Carmena effect" njengaleyo eyenzeka kwiphulo likamasipala eMadrid kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, apho uCarmena waqokelela iivoti ukusuka ekhohlo lonke, waba "yivoti eluncedo" kunye "nomphumo wokufowuna" obalulekileyo owamqhubela kwiBhunga lesiXeko.

Ngokukodwa, ii-polls ezipapashwe emva kwengxoxo-mpikiswano zibonisa i-Melenchon malunga ne-16-17% ngokunyuka okuphawulekayo kunye no-Hamon etshona kwi-9-10% yeevoti, mhlawumbi ngenxa yokubandezeleka kwempembelelo ye-carryover, njengoko ubona ngezantsi.

Kwimeko yaseFransi, iingxoxo zonyulo zibonise, ngokutsho kokuvota, ibhalansi elungileyo ngokubhekiselele kwiMelenchon, ebonakaliswa kwiziganeko zakhe zephulo, eziye zanda ngokuzeleyo. Umgqatswa osekhohlo uzama ukubamba inxalenye yevoti engonelisekanga ngubani obhejayo kwiLe Pen okanye kwiMacron, into engaphaya kokuba uvoto luyaqhubeka nokubonisa lo mkhwa uphezulu weMelenchon kwaye umbone enokhetho lokuya kumjikelo wesibini.

Kwilizwe elingummelwane isinye kwisithathu sabemi sivakalisa ngokuphandle ukuba asizange senze isigqibo kunye nethuba lokutshintsha ivoti yabo ngomzuzu wokugqibela, into ethi, kunye nokuvela kweqela likaMacron (kwaye ngoko ke impazamo enokwenzeka kwi-polls) inokwenza usuku lonyulo lube yingxowa yezinto ezimangalisayo apho iqonga lingekavalwa.

Kusekho amathuba okuba ukunyuka okungalindelekanga kweMelenchon okanye uFillon kunokushiya iLe Pen okanye iMacron, kuya kwenzeka ntoni ukuba umjikelo wesibini wawunguMelenchon vs Le Pen? Kwaye iMacron vs Melenchon? Ekhohlo, bakhuliswe ngokupheleleyo xa beqonda ukuba abanazo iinketho zokuya kumjikelo wesibini, inokuhlanganiswa ngokuthanda kukaMelenchon ukuzisa umgqatswa kumlo kaMongameli, eshiya ama-socialists engenanto ... okanye okwahlukileyo kunokwenzeka.

Ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo, unyulo oluzayo luya kuba nomdla kakhulu kwaye lunokushiya abantu abaninzi bengathethi.