[Ukungena komsebenzisi] Impendulo kwinqaku 'Uhlalutyo lwamanani okunyaniseka kwevoti kwi-UP ebhalwe nguVitorino García'

Emva kokuhlalutya inqaku kunye nedatha ebhalwe nguVitorino, kufuneka nditsho ukuba ndifumene iimpazamo ezininzi, endiya kuzichaza. Ngokusisiseko ndibhala oku kuba ndibona ukuba Ayenzi ngqiqo yamanani ukugxeka i-IU ngokuncipha kwe-UP., njengoko kucetyiswe ngokucacileyo kwinqaku. Ngokoluvo lwam oluthobekileyo, ngokucacileyo into esiyidingayo luphando lokufumanisa ukuba kutheni abavoti bethu beyekile ukusivotela, hayi uhlalutyo olucingelwayo lwamanani.
Emva kokuthetha oku, ndiqala ngeengxaki endizibonileyo kwinqaku:
1º Ngezibalo ezenziwe nguVitorino, andifumani inxaki efanayo naye okanye r=0.63. Kodwa ngokungayihoyi loo nto, ngokubonakalayo siyabona ukuba iigrafu azivezayo azibonisi umkhwa ocacileyo. Iintsingiselo ezicacileyo ziya kuba zezi zilandelayo:

Ekuphela kwento efana nale ichazwe nguVitorino yile ithi akukho kuhlobana. Imizobo yayo yile ilandelayo:

2º nokungawuhoyi lo mba kwaye ukwamkela isiseko sokuba idatha oyinikezile inxibelelene, ayiphathwanga ngendlela eyaneleyo. Makhe ndichaze, ukuba sijonga ilahleko eyenzekileyo sinokubona ukuba kukho imimandla eliqela eyahluke kakhulu enye kwenye kwaye apho ndiza kuveza ithiyori ezingaguqukiyo.
Nangona ngokwenene sinokubeka i-Navarra njengecandelo elahlulwe ngelahleko ephantsi, kodwa ngokusekwe kwingqikelelo esiza kuyenza kamva, siya kuqwalasela ukuba inokuthathwa ifana nangona yonke into.

• Indawo yokuphumla yaseSpain:

Ukuqwalasela la manani sinokubona oku kulandelayo kwaye kukuba kuloo mimandla apho kukho iqela eliqinileyo le-left-left nationalist okanye i-independence party (Euskadi, Catalonia kunye neNavarra), i-UP ibamba ngcono kakhulu. Ikwangqamana nokuhla kwetheko. Okubaluleke ngakumbi kukuhla kwe-GBai ahlupheke kuyo eNavarra, okulandela le ngcamango ichaza ngokucacileyo ukuba kutheni i-UP ixhathise apho kwilizwe lonke.
Ukuba sibheka kwiiBalearic Islands, ukuba asizange sithathele ingqalelo iivoti ze-MES kwi-20-D, ihambelana ngokugqibeleleyo ne-hypothesis ephuhlisiweyo. Xa idatha ye-MES ifakiwe, ukuhla kuhambelana nelo lonke ilizwe. Okunika amanqaku amaninzi ngokuthanda i-hypothesis endiyiphuhlileyo, leyo Ukwehla okubaluleke kakhulu kwenzeka ngaphakathi kwe-UP, kungakhathaliseki ukuba ezo voti zivela kwi-Podemos okanye kwi-IU, kwaye ixhathisa kakuhle kwezo ndawo kunye neqela eliqinileyo le-left-left nationalist / i-independence party., uninzi lweevoti zabo eziya kumfelandawonye kwaye zenze ukwehla kungabonakali kakhulu.
Ukuba sibheka kwiiCanary Islands okanye kwiiBalearic Islands apho amaqela asekhohlo asekhohlo abuthathaka kakhulu, sibona ukuba lo mkhwa uyaqhubeka. Kwaye kulo lonke elaseSpain apho kungekho maqela anjalo, i-UP iyawa ngokucacileyo.

Ewe, ngoku sinedatha yokuxhasa i-hypothesis, kuxa kufuneka sijonge imvelaphi yokwehla kwe-UP. Ukwenza oku, kunengqiqo ukuqala ukususa ukuhla okuqhelekileyo okwenzeka ngokuyeka kungakhathaliseki ukuba kungenxa yokubambisana ne-IU okanye cha. Okokuthi, kufuneka sibale ukuhla komyinge eGalicia, apho kwakukho intsebenziswano kwaye akukho qela eliqinileyo lobuzwe / lokuzimela eliye lancipha kakhulu. Oko kukuthi, imeko efana kakhulu neevoti i-UP yayiza kuzifumana kulo lonke elaseSpain (apho kungekho qela liqinileyo le-left-left nationalist elinokwehla okuphawulweyo) ukuba sele lihambile kumdibaniso ngaphambili.
Umyinge wokuhla kwe-Galicia yi-15,73%. Ke ngoku siya kufumana idatha kuyo yonke iSpain, sisusa oko kuhla komndilili. Ngale ndlela sinokubona ilahleko okanye inzuzo efunyanwa kwingingqi nganye ngokuhamba kunye. Oko kukuthi, siya kukwazi ukufumana loo "tyala" ngenxa yokungaphumeleli kokubambisana apho elinye lamaqela amabini (i-Podemos okanye i-IU) liye laphuma ngokucacileyo kwinqwelo.

Njengoko benditshilo ngaphambili, ukucinga ukuba iindlela zeVitorino zokufumana abagwenxa zichanekile ngokwezibalo, la manani kufuneka athathelwe ingqalelo, njengoko asusa inkungu engazange ivumele ukuba sibone idatha ngokucacileyo.

Kula manani sifumana igrafu ilandelayo:

Ukuba sijonga ngokusondeleyo kwigrafu, siya kukwazi ukuba imigca echazwe kwi-Vitorino kwinqaku elidlulileyo incinci kakhulu. Kwaye ukuba nathi sineenkcukacha ngakumbi, sinokubona ukuba nguZamora (amasekela ama-3), iCastellon (amasekela ama-5) kunye neCuenca (amasekela ama-3) athintela ukuba kube phantse umgca othe tye, njengoko sibona kwigrafu esikuyo. isusiwe idatha ethe. Oko kukuthi, kukho amaphondo ama-3 asasaza izihlalo ezili-11 kwezingama-247 esizihlalutyayo (ngokuncinane nje nge-4%) kwaye ezimele kuphela i-3% yobalo-bantu nalapho i-UP nayo ingazange ibe neziphumo ezintle phambi okanye emva koko. Oko kukuthi, into esiyihlalutyayo yidatha enokuthi ithathwe njengento engenamsebenzi okanye engeyomfuneko.

Izigqibo:
Ngokwezibalo asikwazi ukufumana "umtyholi" kwiPodemos okanye kwi-IU yeziphumo ezimbi. "Abanetyala" baya kuba bobabini, ubuncinane ukwenza olu hlobo lokuhlalutya.
Uphononongo olubanzi ngakumbi lophando phakathi kwabavoti kunye nabavoti bangaphambili luya kufuneka ukufumana unobangela. Nangona sijonge ezi datha sinokuzama ukubonisa utshintsho kwintetho kunye / okanye iindlela ezikhokelele ekunciphiseni, kuba yinto echaphazela bonke abavoti ngendlela ecacileyo.

*** Inqaku likaJavi Alberdi