Uvoto beluchanekile: I-Lógica elula (iivoti) kunye ne-IMOP (izihlalo) zezona zigqwesileyo

Ngaphandle kobunzima obukhulu bokuba ukuvela kweqela elitsha kuthetha, ii-polls bezichanekile kwesi sihlandlo. I iimpazamo kwiipesenti zokuvota kubalelwa kumaqela amahlanu amakhulu aye incinci ngokwentelekiso. Kwizihlalo, ekubalo kwazo kwakunzima ngakumbi, umndilili wokutenxa ngaphantsi kweshumi kwiqela ngalinye buninzi. Akukho nto yakwenza nentlekele esiye sadibana nayo kunyulo oludlulileyo, ngoJuni ka-2016, apho phantse bonke abavoti baye bafumana ukunxaxha okungaphezulu kwe-2,25% yeevoti kwiqela ngalinye (elikhulu).

Ngeli xesha, Ngokwenyani onke amaziko anomyalelo wokugqibela wemidlalo emihlanu echanekileyo, zombini kwiivoti kunye nezihlalo, kwaye baye basulungekisa ngakumbi, ngaphandle kokuba indawo yesithathu ibiphikiswana ngayo, iphambili. Ukungangqinelani okukhulu kubonwa, ngokwengqiqo, ekulinganisweni kweVox, nakwi-PSOE, efumene ukuhamba okongeziweyo kweevoti okunzima ukulinganisa i-priori.

Kwiveki yokugqibela yephulo kunye neengxoxo-mpikiswano kubhiyozelwa Abazange bancede ukucacisa izinto, kodwa kunokuba nzima ngakumbi, kwaye oku kuye kwaphawulwa kwii-polls zokugqibela, ezingazange ziphucule, ngaphandle kwezinye, iimpumelelo zokuvota ezipapashwe kwiveki engaphambili.

IIMOP INSIGHTS (El Confidencial) ikhokela ulwahlulo lwabavoti ngezihlalo, ngoqikelelo oluhle kakhulu lwezihlalo ezi-5 ngomdlalo ngamnye. Ukuqiniswa koqikelelo kuyabonakala kwinto yokuba iveki ephelileyo ayizange incede le nkampani ukuba iphucule uqikelelo lwayo, ngokuchaseneyo. Enyanisweni, kwakubi kakhulu phakathi kwabo bapapasha idatha ngosuku olufanayo lwe-28. Okubi kakhulu ngaphakathi kwesizathu.

Kwelinye icala, kwiipesenti zokuvota kuye kwakho abathile isiphumo esimangalisayo nje, njengoko kunjalo Ingqiqo elula, olwapapashwa kwiiveki ezimbini ezinesiqingatha ngaphambi konyulo. Kulusizi ukuba engakhange aqikelele inani lezihlalo ukuze siqinisekise ngoku inqanaba lempumelelo yakhe komnye umba. Iziphumo zempazamo engaphantsi kwe-2% zininzi, kwaye kuphela kwiNdawo ePhezulu enye ingahlelwa, ngaphandle kokuthomalalisa, njenge "kubi“. Bonke abanye abavoti "bavuma." I-GAD3, eneziphumo eziphantsi kwi-survey-of-campaign survey, ikwazile ukuphucula ngakumbi kuleyo ipapashwe ngomhla wonyulo. I-IMOP kwakhona ikwizikhundla eziphambili kuvoto lwangaphambili, kodwa yeyokugqibela kwezo zangosuku lonyulo, nto leyo eyenza kucace ukuba bebesondele kangakanani (kwaye bachanekile) bonke ngokuhloniphana.

Ngokuphathelele CIS uqikelelo, kumgca wempumelelo oluphawu olu lonyulo, nge ngaphezulu nje kokutenxa kwe-1% kumaqela amakhulu amahlanu. Ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo, emva kokuba wenze "ikhitshi" elaneleyo kwesi sihlandlo, ukushiya imigaqo ebeyisebenzisa kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo, imncede kakhulu. Enoba kuyintoni na, kusengqiqweni ukuyiqonda.

Sikwabandakanya iiphaneli zethu kuhlelo, nangona ingelulo uphando ngengqiqo engqongqo, ukuququzelela elubala. Sanelisekile, ngeziphumo ezifanelekileyo, enkosi kumawaka emibuzo esiwafumeneyo kwaye asincedayo ukucokisa iziphumo. Si idatha Ciudadanos kakuhle kakhulu kwaye Unidas Podemos, kunye nezo zeQela elidumileyo ngokufanelekileyo. Oyena mdala imposiso kwenzekile uqikelelo lwethu lweVox, esiye sagqithisa ngayo (kanye njengoko sawela kancinci eAndalusia), kunye ne PSOE.

Imodeli yethu iyasebenza, kodwa kwangaxeshanye siyaqonda ukuba amandla ayo alele ngokuchanekileyo kwinto yokuba Singaphucula ngakumbi ubuthathaka bakho, unyulo emva konyulo, ngokuqokelelwa kwedatha rhoqo kunye nokuphuculwa okusisigxina. Siqinisekile ukuba siya kuthembela kwinkxaso yakho njengangaphambili. Ndiyabulela kuwe size ngoku.

Kwiintsuku ezimbalwa siza kufaka idatha esuka kolu lonyulo kuhlelo jikelele lwabavoti, kubandakanywa ne-coefficients entsha yokulungiswa esiza kuyisebenzisa kumyinge wokuvota, kwaye siya kuyipapasha apha.

Isiphelo: ibhalansi jikelele yonyulo kolu lonyulo Ibe yinto entle kakhulu, Ibonakalise ukuba iyasebenza ekubhaqeni iintsingiselo kwaye ibenomlinganiselo ochanekileyo wokuchaneka. Unyulo ngoMeyi 26 luya kuba luvavanyo olutsha, kwaye ngomhla we-27, njengesiqhelo, siya kuhlalutya apha imbalelwano, okanye hayi, phakathi kophando olupapashwayo kunye nenyani.