I-ElectoAverage: I-PP kanye ne-Unidos Podemos okungenani; I-Vox isivele yeqa u-10%

Unyaka obalulekile uqala ngokuthi i-Vox isivele yeqe u-10% wamavoti esilinganisweni sohlolo. Ngokokuqala ngqa eSpain sinesiteji esinemidlalo emihlanu "mkhulu", Uma ngalokho siqonda lezo ezeqa lelo phesenti lokuvota.

Ukuvela kwesilinganiso ngesikhathi sesishayamthetho kusishiya nedatha ethile ethokozisayo. Iqembu Elidumile ifinyelela ubuncane bayo kusukela ku-26-J (eqinisweni, iyona ubuncane kusukela ngo-1982!!), futhi aweqe amavoti angu-20%. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, I-Unidos Podemos nayo isencane, futhi kancane kancane ibambe amavoti angaphezu kuka-15%.

Ngokuvamile, i amaqembu amane amakhulu ayaqhubeka nokulungisa phansi, ngenkathi uVox ephakama.

Lesi simo sizokuthinta kanjani ukwabiwa kwezihlalo?

Ngokokuqala ngqa emashumini eminyaka ambalwa, Lokhu esingakubiza ngokuthi “okulungile” akuzuzi ngempela ekwabiweni kwamasekela. Isamba esicatshangelwayo se-PP, Cs kanye ne-Vox sizothola u-50.2% wamavoti, okwathi eminyakeni engamashumi amabili edlule ngabe yanele ukudlula kalula amasekela angama-200, kodwa manje ngeke inikeze iningi elincane eliphelele. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, Isamba sama-PP nama-C sikude kakhulu kulelo ningi. Ukuhlakazwa kwevoti kunomthelela omkhulu. Ezifundazweni eziningi “ezincane”, okuyiningi, azikho izihlalo ezizonikezwa abantu abaningi abahlukene, ngakho-ke into yokuthi “amavoti alahlekile” izoba ukhiye okhethweni oluzayo.

Ngakwesokunxele, amaqembu abeseka uPedro Sánchez esinqumweni sokusola uRajoy, sumarzaziyi-172, futhi azikwazanga ukuphinde ziyikhiphe. Kodwa izibalo zisondelene kakhulu futhi noma yikuphi ukuhluka okuncane kungashintsha izinto.

Ngokuqondene ne- umfelandawonye we-hypothetical phakathi kwe-PSOE ne-Ciudadanos, osekuzanywe kakade ngaphandle kwempumelelo ngo-2016, sumarsekunamavoti ayi-164 (bese kuba yi-130). Uma into efana nalena ibicatshangelwa, izodinga ukwesekwa kwangaphandle, hhayi nje lokho kwe-PNV, ukuze ikwazi ukwakheka.

Isimo siphezulu emoyeni futhi yonke into incike kakhulu ekuziphendukeleni kweVox ezinyangeni ezimbili ezizayo. Uma isimo se imidlalo emihlanu emikhulu ihlanganisiwe, uhlelo lokhetho luzovuza kuCongress (futhi ngisho nangaphezulu, eSenate) noma ubani okwazi ukugqama, ngisho nakancane. Okwamanje, lelo phathi yi-PSOE.

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