Ingabe ukwelulwa kwezihlalo kanye neqembu lokuqala ngokwesifundazwe kuthembekile?

Ukwengezwa kwezihlalo ngisho “neqembu lokuqala esifundazweni ngasinye” kuvame ukwenziwa kusuka kudatha yephesenti lamavoti elihlinzekwe inhlolovo ethile noma isilinganiso. Ngokuvamile, futhi, lezi extrapolations zigxekwa njengokusungulwa okumsulwa.

Njengoba kuwudaba oluyimpikiswano, sizozama ukwenza isifinyezo esilula sezizathu ezisekela kokubili. Mhlawumbe ngale ndlela sizokwazi ukuthi yini esingayilindela nesingeke siyilindele ekwakhiweni kwezihlalo.

INGABE I-EXTRAPOLATIONS IYIQINISO?

Cha abaka. Ukwengeza (okungenani uma kwenziwe kahle) kusekelwe kudatha yokhetho lokugcina olubanjwe (esimweni seCongress, ngokwesibonelo, kusekelwe kudatha yokhetho lwango-26-J-2016), futhi bacabangela iqiniso langempela: ukuthi akuzona zonke izifundazwe ezivota ngokufanayo nokuthi lo mehluko wokuvota uyagcinwa, empeleni, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Ngakho-ke, uma kunikezwe idatha yocwaningo, kungenzeka ukuthi i-extrapolate emgqeni ukuzama ukuthola imiphumela engenzeka kakhulu isifundazwe ngesifundazwe, futhi ukusuka lapho kuthathwe isabelo esithile sezihlalo.

Ingabe lokhu kwe-extrapolation kuyasiza?

Yebo, iwusizo kakhulu. Idatha elinikezayo izothembeka kakhulu futhi izosondelana neqiniso kunalokho uma singazange sicabangele umehluko wangaphambilini phakathi kwezifundazwe.

Ingabe inembile?

Cha. Ukusebenzisa i-extrapolation yenhlolovo kazwelonke ukuze kudingidwe ukuthi leli noma lelo qembu liyawina e-Badajoz noma e-Huesca kuwubudedengu. Amamephu we-Spain anikezwa yi-extrapolations anikeza isithombe esithembekile ngokunengqondo, kodwa, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungenzeka ehluleke futhi akwenze lokho ngokudabukisayo kakhulu lapho isifundazwe esidluliselwe kuso.

Lokhu akusho ukuthi ukwabiwa kwezihlalo okunikezwa yi-extrapolations akusizi ngalutho, ngoba Ukuchezuka okwenzeka kwezinye izifundazwe kulungiswa kakhulu ukuchezuka kwelinye icala kwezinye.. Kungakho izindlela ezihlukene ze-extrapolation zivame ukunikeza, ngokumangazayo, izibikezelo zezihlalo ezifanayo, noma imephu yeqembu lokuqala ngokwezifundazwe ezinikezayo. kubukeka ehluke kakhulu.

Ungayithuthukisa kanjani i-extrapolation?

Inqubo evamile yokwehlukanisa, ehlanganisa ukusebenzisa nje endaweni ngayinye iphesenti elifanayo lokuchezuka komhlaba wonke okubonwa eqenjini ngalinye ezingeni likazwelonke, kuholela emaphutheni, emiphumeleni engenakwenzeka (ngaphezu kwevoti elivumelekile elingaphezu kuka-100% kwezinye izifunda, isibonelo) , futhi ayicabangi ukuthi ingxenye yokuchezuka ayilona izinga kodwa isibalo, ayilingani kodwa ihambisana kuzo zonke izifunda. Ngale ndlela, isibonelo, iqembu elikhulu elisuka ku-20% liye ku-40% wamavoti ezingeni likazwelonke lisuka okhethweni olwedlule liye ocwaningweni lwakamuva, lizosuka ku-40% liye ku-80% wamavoti esifundazweni esifundazweni. eyodwa ethola amavoti amaningi kanye no-3% kuya ku-6% kule ethola okuncane kakhulu, isibonelo. Imiphumela enjalo ayihambisani neqiniso. Sonke singavuma, ngomqondo ophusile, ukuthi iphesenti langempela esifundazweni sokuqala lizoba ngaphansi kwama-80% kanti kwesesibili libe ngaphezulu kuka-6%.

Kungakho e-Electomania sithuthukise indlela yethu yokuhlanganisa i-extrapolation onyakeni odlule, sethula into exubile eyenza ukuhluka okulinganayo.

Intuthuko yesibili engase yethulwe, nakuba iyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ngokobuchwepheshe futhi iyingozi, iwukucabangela ukuvela kwesifunda ngasinye ngokocwaningo lwakamuva lolunye ukhetho (lomasipala, lwesifunda) noma, okungcono kakhulu, imiphumela elandelayo yokhetho. lezo ezinye izinketho.

Ngaphandle kokungabaza, uma lokhu kuthuthukiswa kwenziwe kahle, bekuzocwengisa idatha nangokwengeziwe. Into enzima, into ewudeveli, ukuhlanganisa leyo datha ngemuva zendawo nalabo beqembu lesizwe, kanye nokungeqi noma ukufinyela esisindweni esinikezwe lokhu kulungiswa ukuze kukhishwe i-extrapolation iyonke.

Izigaba ezimbili ezedlule zichaza amaqiniso ayinkimbinkimbi okungafanelekile ukuchazwa ngokuqhubekayo, futhi okungadingi ngisho nokuqondwa ngokugcwele. Udinga nje ukugcina umbono oyisisekelo: Ukwengeza kahle kunzima, futhi ukukwenza kahle kakhulu kunzima nakakhulu ngoba kudinga ukulungiswa okuhle kakhulu.

Yiziphi ezinye izici ezithonya ukwethembeka kwe-extrapolation?

Isici esiyisisekelo siwukuthi isikhathi.

Ukubhakuzisa kwamaphiko ovemvane ePeru ekugcineni kuyothonya isimo sezulu saseSiberia, kuphela uma sinikeza lelo thonya isikhathi esanele sokubonakala. Ngokunjalo, imiphumela yokhetho izoncipha kancane kancane njengoba isikhathi sihamba, ngoba kukhona “izimvemvane” eziningi ezibhakuzisa amaphiko zenze isifundazwe ngasinye siguquke ngendlela yaso. Ngakho-ke, "isimo sezulu" sokhetho esizayo sizoba, njengoba izinyanga zihamba, singalindeleki kakhulu ezingeni lendawo, nakuba sinedatha yomhlaba wonke ethembeke kakhulu.

Ukuvota okwenziwa ngenyanga eyodwa ngemuva kokhetho lukazwelonke kuzoba lula kakhulu ukuphinda kukhishwe, futhi umphumela wokwengeza uzoba yiqiniso kakhulu kunaleyo eyenziwa eminyakeni emine kamuva.

Isibonelo salokhu, esithathwe ngokwedlulele, kwakuwukhetho lukamongameli waseMelika, lapho imiphumela ye-51 States of the Union yatholwa abavoti, ngokwengxenye, kudatha kazwelonke yomhlaba. Uhlelo lokhetho lwaseMelika olunelukuluku (nolungenabulungiswa) lwakhulisa amaphutha alezi zibuyekezo, futhi lwanikeza uTrump ukunqoba kubameleli angazange asondele ngisho kude nabo kumavoti. Ukuvota akuzange kuhluleke emhlabeni wonke kulolo khetho: kunalokho, izinga labo lempumelelo lalilikhulu kakhulu.

U-Nate Silver, isibonelo, ucishe "wayibethela" yonke imiphumela ka-Hillary Clinton no-Donald Trump. Kodwa wenza iphutha ekunikezeni izifunda ezibalulekile futhi ngaleyo ndlela amathuba okunqoba ngayinye:

Ukubikezela...

... kanye neqiniso

Lapho amaDemocrat anqoba khona, akwenza lokho ngenani elikhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, kodwa lokho akuzange kubanike abameleli abaningi, kuyilapho lapho kwakulindeleke ukuthi kuboshwe isibopho, kwaphulwa, kancane, ngenxa yamaRiphabhulikhi, avuna abameleli abaningi ngaphezu kwalokho. kulindeleke.. Ngakho, Ngenkathi belungisa umhlaba wonke, abavoti benza amaphutha amakhulu endaweni.

Ukubhakuzisa kwamaphiko ovemvane lwesiphithiphithi kwathanda u-Trump futhi kwasifundisa okuthile okubalulekile: masingayinaki kakhulu imininingwane, ngoba mhlawumbe unephutha. Asinamathele esithombeni esijwayelekile, ngoba cishe sizobe silungile.

Futhi enye into. I-butterfly Effect", Amandla esiphithiphithi emiphumeleni ehlanekezelayo makhulu ezinhlelweni zokhetho ezinkulu noma ngezithunywa ezinjengalezo zase-United States, kodwa iyalawuleka kakhulu ezinhlelweni ezilinganayo. Ngenhlanhla, eSpain sinohlelo olungalingani kakhulu kunalolo lwase-United States. Ngakho-ke ama-extrapols ethu, nawo wonke amaphutha awo, anokwethenjelwa kakhulu.

Umbandela kuphela wokuthi lokhu kube njalo ukuthi... ukuthi... ukuthi izinhlolovo zenziwe kahle. Asethembe ukuthi okungenani zinhle njengezilinganiso zika-Nate Silver zase-United States.

Okwamanje, lapha sishiya eyokugcina eshicilelwe eSpain, ngabakwaCeleste-Tel, nokwabiwa kwayo kwezihlalo kanye nokwengezwa kwethu yizifundazwe.

Siyakukholelwa impela, kodwa lokho kunengqondo. UCABANGANI?

Jose Salver