IGermany ifuna umfelandawonye ukuze ibuse

Kungakapheli nenyanga ngaphambi kokhetho lwaseJalimane Septhemba 24, Kuncane ukungaqiniseki mayelana nokuthi umphumela uwonke uzoba yini, kodwa kuningi mayelana namadlelandawonye abusayo.

I cishe Amalungu angama-630 eBundestag (indlu yayo yamasekela), bakhethwa ngohlelo olulingana kakhulu phakathi kwawo wonke lawo maqembu adlula ama-5% amavoti ezingeni likazwelonke. Laba bazoqoka ishansela isikhathi esiyiminyaka emine.

I-CDU/CSU ye U-Angela Merkel ugcina ukuhola okunethezekile mayelana ne-SPD ka-Schulz, eqinisweni engagcini nje ngokululama kodwa ibonakala iyancipha kancane kancane. Kodwa-ke, njengoba uMerkel ekude neningi lokucabanga eliphelele, wonke umuntu acabanga ngakho imifelandawonye engaba khona elandelayo.

Ngonyaka odlule i ukuvela kwesilinganiso sohlolovo Kube yilokhu, ngokusho kukaPollytix:

Umphumela wokhetho lukaSchulz ekuqaleni konyaka njengomholi weSocial Democratic washeshe waguga. Iqembu lakhe alikazitholi izikhundla, futhi empeleni lisaqhubeka nokwehla.

Umthombo: http://www.wahlrecht.de

Amaqembu amabili amakhulu anokulindela okuphansi ngandlela-thile kuneminyaka emine edlule, kodwa ngokuvamile aqhubeka ngendlela efanayo. Into ebalulekile ikwenye indawo: ku umgoqo wokhetho wamavoti angu-5%.. Labo abangafinyeleli kuleso sibalo bavele bakhishwe ekwabiweni ngokulinganayo kwezihlalo ephalamende, ngaphandle uma bethola okungenani amasekela amathathu ezindaweni ezinelungu elilodwa, okuyinto engekho kunoma yimaphi amaqembu amancane. Ngakho-ke, amavoti ayizigidi ezimbalwa angalahleka. Okwamanje, iGreens (Grüne), Liberals (FDP), kwesokunxele (Die Linke) kanye ne-far-right (AfD) kubonakala kuqinisekisiwe ukuthi bazofinyelela ku-5%, kodwa akunakuphikwa ukuthi abanye babo. izosala ngaphandle. Uma lokhu kungenzeka, ukulingana kwamandla kungashintshwa, ngoba amavoti ayizigidi ezimbalwa azosala ngaphandle kokusabalalisa amasekela, futhi amanye ama-coalouss abonakala ekude kakhulu nokuthola izihlalo ezingu-50%, angafinyelela kuwo.

Konke kubonakala kukhombisa lokho I-Germany izokhetha uhlelo lwamaqembu amabili olungaphelele (2+4), namaqembu amabili amakhulu namaqembu ayisithupha ephalamende. Uma kunjalo, umdlalo we imifelandawonye engenzeka Uma kubhekwa isilinganiso samanje sezinhlolovo, kungaba okulandelayo:

Umfelandawonye ozinzile kakhulu, ngokungangabazeki ozodlula amavoti angama-50%, kuzoba ukukhishwa kabusha kwesivumelwano esikhulu phakathi kweChristian Democrats kanye neSocial Democrats (CDU+SPD). Nokho, kubonakala sengathi kulesi senzakalo wonke umuntu ufisa sengathi kungase kufunwe elinye inani. Inhlanganisela ethembisa kakhulu yilezi:

• "Jamaica" Coalition. Izohlanganisa kabusha iqembu likaMerkel nama-liberals kanye nemifino. Zonke izinhlolovo zinikeza iningi elingaphezu kokwanele, futhi lijabulela izandulela kuzivumelwano ezimbalwa ze-Lander nezendawo.
• Umfelandawonye we-CDU ka-Merkel nabaphiko abangakwesokudla be- AFD. Akwenzeki neze, ngoba i-AfD iyiqembu elivinjelwe ngokuhlelekile yiwo wonke amanye amaqembu ezepolitiki.
• Umfelandawonye we I-CDU nama-liberals. Kuwukubheja okuyintandokazi kwabaningi, nakuba ngokokuvota kwamanje bekungeke kukwazi (ngokuncane kakhulu) ukufinyelela ku-50% wezihlalo. Kodwa-ke, uma noma yimaphi amanye amaqembu amancane agcina engafikanga ku-5% wamavoti, kungenzeka ukuthi isamba se-CDU+FDP sizofinyelela ku-50% ofisayo we-Bundestag.
• Umfelandawonye I-CDU+Greens. Nakuba kungase kubonakale kungavamile, inhlanganisela isivele izanyiwe, futhi i-Greens ibilokhu ithatha indima "ephakathi" kwezombusazwe zaseJalimane ezizokwenza kube nokwenzeka. Amathuba ayo, uma sikhuluma ngokwezibalo, afanayo noma aphansi ngandlela thize kunalawo omfelandawonye weCDU+FDP.
• Umfelandawonye wesokunxele. Lokhu okuhlukile, okubonakale kufinyeleleka ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, bekulokhu kuncipha ngesikhathi esifanayo ne-SPD. Ngalesi sikhathi, amaqembu azoyihlanganisa ashoda ngamaphesenti ambalwa ukuze ikwazi ukwenzeka. Ushintsho olukhulu kuphela emasontweni ambalwa ezayo obelungayivumela ukuthi ibe setafuleni.
• Umfelandawonye we amademokhrasi enhlalweni nabantu abaluhlaza kanye nama-liberals. Angeke kwenzeke njengasekuqaleni.

Njengoba sekusele inyanga eyodwa ukuthi kube nokhetho, izinto zisengashintsha. Sinezibonelo eziningi kakhulu esikhathini esidlule okhethweni imiphumela yalo ebonakale isiphetho esingalindelekile futhi egcine iphethe ngendlela emangalisayo. Sizolalela, ngoba ingxenye enkulu yekusasa lase-Europe idlalwa ngoSepthemba 24 eJalimane.