Ibhalansi entekenteke okulula ukuthi i-PP iphuke futhi i-UP igcinwe

Ngalesi sihloko sivala uchungechunge lwabathathu abazinikele esimweni esingatholakala ku- inhlolovo isilinganiso kusukela ngoJuni 6 kanye nokuvela kwayo okubonakalayo kuze kube nguJuni 26.

Ezigabeni ezimbili ezedlule sihlaziye isimo ibhulokhi yesokunxele futhi ku  ibhulokhi efanele. 

Siqala emicabangweni emibili engafanele, kodwa esikholelwa ukuthi inengqondo:

1. Sinezinhlaka ezimbili zokhetho, eyodwa iya kwesokudla (PP+C's) nenye kwesokunxele (UP+PSOE) futhi siyakwamukela ukusatshalaliswa kwamaphesenti amavoti athathwa esilinganisweni samavoti angomhla ka-6 Juni. Okunye ukusatshalaliswa ingatshekisa umphumela ohlangothini olulodwa noma kolunye, kunjalo, kodwa bebengeke benze iziphetho ezijwayelekile zibe zingasebenzi.
2. Okulandelayo sihlola ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi isimo sibe se-polarized kusukela manje kuze kube ngu-26-J. Kulesi sihloko sokugcina, sibona kusengaphambili ukuthi kungenzeka kwenzeke okuphambene. Ukuze izibalo sisebenzisa i I-Electrocalculator kusukela kuzakwethu uLutxana, owenziwe wapheleliswa abanye abasebenzisi, futhi okusinikeza ukwethembeka okungaphezu kokufakazelwe, ngomkhawulo wephutha esiwulinganisela kubukhulu bezihlalo ezi-2 ekuqeqeshweni ngakunye.

Uma izimo ezingakwesokudla nesobunxele sezihlolisisiwe, manje yisikhathi sokuzihlanganisa ukuze uthole isithombe esingokoqobo. Asiye lapho:

Ukuze ubale inani elisebenzayo lamaqembu, kulesi simo esisikhombisa “inkomba ye-polarization”, sisebenzise indlela kaSolwazi Lijphart.

Ithebula libonisa, phezulu, ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi i-PSOE ne-C izonqoba ukuhlukaniswa futhi ithole amavoti ngezindleko ze-PP ne-UP, futhi, phansi, ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi kwenzeke okuphambene. Ithebula liqhubekela phambili kancane libheke ekuhlukaniseni ngokwedlulele ngokwedlulele ukuze kuqhutshekwe nomqondo wama-athikili adlule futhi ngenxa yokuthi, ngokusobala, ngikholelwa ukuthi kusekhona okusazokwenziwa kuleyo ndawo. Ibhalansi engalungile (eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) iyinzuzo yebhulokhi efanele, futhi ibhalansi eqondile (ebomvu) iyinzuzo kwesokunxele.

Iziphetho zivela ngokwazo. Singawafingqa kanje:

Okokuqala. Ukuhlotshaniswa kwamandla okwamanje okumakwe ama-poll kungcono kakhulu ngakwesobunxele. Izinketho zabo zingathuthuka, vele, uma bekhuphuka ngamaphesenti amavoti, kodwa inqobo nje uma isisindo esilinganiselwe samandla ezombusazwe ngamunye sigcinwa ngangokunokwenzeka. Cishe noma yiluphi olunye ushintsho luzoba yingozi kuwe.

Okwesibili. Uma i-PSOE kanye/noma i-Ciudadanos ikwazi ukunqoba ukuguquguquka kwe-polarization futhi ithuthukise amathemba abo emasontweni azayo, bazokwazi ukuqhubekela phambili ezikhundleni zabo ngabanye, kodwa, sekukonke, i-bloc engase izuze kuyoba ilungelo- i-wing bloc (indawo engakwesokudla yegrafu).

Okwesithathu. Uma i-PP kanye ne-UP bephumelela ohlelweni lwabo lokuhlukanisa, futhi bobabili baphakamisa amaphesenti abo ezinsukwini ezingu-20 esisele kuze kufike ukhetho, ngokunengqondo bazothuthukisa izikhundla zabo ngabanye, kodwa, ngokugcwele, isikhundla se-PP sizoba ngaphezu kwalokho. kuqiniswe kune-UP (indawo engakwesokunxele yegrafu).

Ngokufingqa, kwesokunxele sizoqala umkhankaso wokhetho ngemva kokufinyelela esimweni esimenza owinile womdlalo. Nokho, Noma yikuphi ukuguqulwa kwamabhalansi amanje, ngaphandle kokwenyuka okuhlanganyelwe kwephesenti lamavoti e-PSOE ne-UP, kuzovuna abamelene nabo.

Kuningi kakhulu ukuhlaziya ngaphambi komkhankaso wokhetho. Manje okuhle kuyaqala. Futhi lapha sizokutshela. Ngiyanibingelela nonke.

Izindatshana ezidlule ochungechungeni:

Ukumangala kungavimba uPablo Iglesias ukuthi afinyelele kuhulumeni

I-PP iyaphithana ku-Ciudadanos

.