Ukumangala kungavimbela uPablo Iglesias ukuthi afinyelele kuhulumeni

Uma kukhona into eyodwa ecacile kubo ku-Unidos Podemos, ukuthi kufanele badlule i-PSOE okhethweni lwe-26-J: bathuthuke ngamavoti, ngezihlalo, futhi ngokucacile, ngcono.

Ku-UP bacabanga ngale ndlela: “Uma indlela yokudlula isifinyelelwe, lapho siba nenzuzo eyengeziwe kune-PSOE, kuzoba namandla engeziwe okuxoxisana. Ngokwengeza izihlalo ze-PSOE kwezethu, sizozuza iningi, ngoba umthetho we-D'hont uzosinika amasekela amaningi. Khona-ke i-PSOE kuyodingeka isisekele, ngoba uma sibashaya ngokucacile futhi bakhetha ukusekela i-PP, bazovezwa futhi bacwiliswe. Uma bengaseki, sizobenza banyamalale ebalazweni kunoma yiluphi ukhetho, lwezifunda noma lukazwelonke, olubizwe kamuva.”

Ukucabanga kubonakala kungenasici, kodwa kusekelwe ekucabangeni kwangaphambilini: ukuthi ukudlula, ngokunikeza amasekela engeziwe ku-UP, kuzuzisa iqembu elingakwesokunxele, elizozuza iningi elicacile.

Kodwa ingabe lokhu kunjalo?

Ngalezi zinsuku ukuvota okuningi kuthatha kalula ukunqotshwa kwe-UP phezu kwe-PSOE. Imibono yomphakathi, ngisho nepolitiki encane kakhulu, ingase iqale ukukwamukela lokhu, futhi okhethweni ingqondo yomvoti iwukhiye. Uma kunjalo, abavoti be-PSOE bazosabela kanjani lapho beqiniseka kancane kancane ukuthi iqembu labo "iqembu elilahlekile"?

Abaziwayo "hudula umphumela" Uma kuvotwa, kwenza ingxenye yabavoti ishiye labo ebabona njengabahluliwe bese ijoyina labo ebabona njengabawinile. Ngakho-ke, isu le-UP kufanele liyinike amavoti amaningi njengoba kuza ukhetho.

Kodwa kunezinkinga ezimbili:

Okokuqala: Kufika ku-40% wabavoti be-PSOE bathi abasoze bavotela i-Unidos Podemos. Ngakho-ke, uma abaningi babo begcina beyishiyile i-PSOE ngosuku lokhetho, akuzona zonke lezi zilahliwe ezizophelela e-UP. Abanye abavoti besocialist, bedangele, bazokhetha ukugodla. Futhi abanye bangase bavotele i-Ciudadanos noma i-PP uma ukwenqaba kwabo i-Podemos kuhle ngempela.
Okwesibili: Ukwehlisa amavoti e-PSOE kunciphisa inani lamasekela. Ingabe lokhu kuzoxazululwa ukwenyuka kwezihlalo okuzotholwa yi-UP?

Eyokuqala kuphela yalezi zinkinga ezimbili kufanele yanele ukuze, kusukela ku-UP, akekho ongafuna ukuphakama okwakukhulu kakhulu eqenjini labo: ukulahlekelwa kwe-PSOE kuzozuza, ngisho noma kancane, i-Ciudadanos noma i-PP, futhi iningi lesobunxele elifuna Singashabalala.

Kodwa masinganaki lelo qiniso, futhi sigxile esimweni esihle kakhulu esingase sivele se-UP: ukuthi wonke amavoti alahlwa yi-PSOE agcina enyukele PHEZULU.

Ngokusho kwe- inhlolovo isilinganiso Namuhla, Juni 6, uma ukhetho belubanjwe, lokhu kungaba imiphumela:

PP: 29,6% wamavoti.

UKUZE: 24,4%

I-PSOE: 20,8%

C: 15,0%

Uma sisebenzisa i- i-electrocalculator enhle kakhulu yase-Lutxana ne-Johnniezq, sibeka le datha ngokwesifundazwe, futhi sithola imephu elandelayo ebonisa okufanayo kokuqala kwesifundazwe ngasinye:

I-PSOE izoba yiqembu lokuqala kwezinye izifundazwe kanye ne-UP kwezinye. I-PP, ezindaweni eziningi.

Kodwa manje ake sithi i-UP ithatha amanye amavoti angu-5% ku-PSOE phakathi kwanamuhla nosuku lokhetho. Uma kunjalo, i-UP izocishe ihlanganise amavoti ne-PP, futhi imephu yeqembu lokuqala ngokwezifundazwe izobukeka kanje:

Ezinye izifundazwe cishe zishintshisana ngezinye, futhi akubonakali kunomphumela ophawulekayo.

Kodwa manje ake sibheke ukuthi ukwabiwa kwezihlalo kuhluka kanjani:

Nakuba i-UP + PSOE bloc ingeza amavoti afanayo ncamashi kuzo zombili izimo, ngokudlulisela amavoti angu-5% ukusuka ku-PSOE kuya UP, ukwehla kwezihlalo okuhlangenwe nakho kwama-socialists akunxeshezelwa ngokunyuka kwamaPodemos. Esimeni samanje (ushizi kwesokunxele), ibhulokhi yesokunxele idlula ibloc yesokudla ngezihlalo eziyi-166 kuya kweziyi-158. Kodwa uma i-sorpasso iqhubekela phambili, sivame isimo (kwesokudla impela) lapho i-bloc ephiko kwesokudla idlula i-left-wing bloc ngo-164 kuya ku-160.

Ingenzeka kanjani into efana nalena? Ngenxa yokuthi uma kubhekwa ukwehla kwe-PSOE, leli qembu lizolahlekelwa yisihlalo salo kuphela ezifundazweni eziningi, futhi lezo zinsalela ngezinye izikhathi zizowela ohlangothini lwe-PP ne-Ciudadanos. Ngakho-ke, ukudlula okusesilinganisweni ukusuka ku-UP kuya ku-PSOE (njengalokhu esibhekene nakho kulezi zinsuku) kungaba kuhle kuqhinga likahulumeni we-Iglesias. Kodwa ukumangala okweqile kuzuzisa amaqembu esithathu, ngokusebenzisa nje umthetho wokhetho, ngisho noma engathathi nelilodwa ivoti elilahlekelwa yi-PSOE ohlelweni.

Akunakusho ukuthi, esimweni esingokoqobo, i-PSOE ngeke inikeze amavoti ku-UP kuphela, kodwa futhi ku-Ciudadanos futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke ukuvinjelwa. Futhi uma kunjalo, kwesokunxele manje sesingavalelisa kunoma yiliphi ithemba leningi.

Ukuqinisekisa lo mphumela, akukho lutho olungcono kunokwenza izifaniso eziningi ngendlela ofuna ngayo ku- i-electrocalculator enhle kakhulu kuleli khasi, noma kunoma iyiphi enye i-extrapolator yesihlalo: sizohlala sithola isiphetho esifanayo. Uma okudingwa ngu-Iglesias kuwukufinyelela isivumelwano ne-PSOE ukuze abuse, into yokugcina anentshisekelo kuyo ukuthi yehle ngaphansi kwama-20% amavoti.

I-sorpasso iqukethe ngaphakathi kwayo inzalo enobuthi engakhulunywa ngayo ku-Podemos, inomdlandla njengoba ibhekene nesimo: uma impumelelo yabo idlula ngokweqile, izobavimbela ekwenzeni uhulumeni futhi bayoyinikela kubaphikisi babo.

Ezinye izindatshana ochungechungeni:

I-PP iyaphithana ku-Ciudadanos

Isiphetho