Ukhetho eJalimane: imifelandawonye emihlanu isengenzeka

Usuku lokhetho lwaseJalimane lusaqhubeka nokusondela Septhemba 24. AmaJalimane azokhetha cishe Amalungu angama-630 eBundestag (indlu yayo yamasekela), futhi laba bazoqoka ushansela isikhathi esiyiminyaka emine.

I-CDU/CSU ka-Angela Merkel igcina ukuhola okunethezekile ngaphezu kwe-SPD ka-Schulz, kodwa ikude neningi lokucabanga eliphelele okungekho muntu ocabanga ngalo. Ngakho-ke, ngaphezu kokuthi ubani ozowina, indaba iwukwazi ukuthi yini ukuhlotshaniswa kwamandla okuzovela kuBundestag elandelayo, ukuze kunqunywe ukuthi yikuphi okungenzeka kube umfelandawonye kahulumeni.

Okwamanje, izinhlolovo zakamuva zimi kanje:

Umthombo: http://www.wahlrecht.de

Amaqembu amabili amakhulu aphansi ngandlela thize kuneminyaka emine edlule, kodwa aphinda imiphumela. Okubalulekile wumgoqo wokhetho wamavoti angu-5%.. Amaqembu angafinyeleli kuleso sibalo avele akhishwe ephalamende, okusho ukuthi amavoti ayizigidi ezimbalwa angase alahleke, okwandisa isibalo samasekela emaqenjini amakhulu. Lokho kwenzeka eminyakeni emine edlule ngama-liberals e-FDP, kanye nelungelo eliqinile le-AfD. Womabili la maqembu athole amavoti angaphezu kwezigidi ezimbili kanye namavoti acishe abe ngu-5%, kodwa akwanele ukuzuza isihlalo esisodwa.

Kulo mcimbi, nokho, kubonakala sengathi ama-liberals kanye nabalwela amalungelo akude bazokwazi ukungena ephalamende, okwenza umdlalo wamadlelandawonye ube nzima kakhulu, ohlelweni olufana nolwaseJalimane lapho ukwabiwa kwezihlalo kuhambisana kakhulu, futhi ngubani ofinyelela. ukuthi 5% imilingo ungafisa cishe amasekela amane. Amanye amaqembu amabili “amancane”, iqembu elingakwesokunxele elithi “Die Linke” kanye nezazi zemvelo “Grüne”, azocishe aphinde imiphumela yawo yeminyaka emine edlule, ngokokuvota.

Isilinganiso esilungiswe yi-Pollytix sibonisa lokhu kuguquguquka ocwaningweni lweminyaka emine edlule:

Umphumela (wesikhashana) wokhetho luka-Schulz olwenziwa yi-Social Democrats ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka ungabonakala ngokucacile, kanye nezikhathi eziphakeme kakhulu kwesokudla (umugqa oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) kanye nohlaza (umugqa oluhlaza) phakathi no-2016.

Kodwa manje konke lokho sekwenzekile, sekuphinde kwaba nokuthambekela ohlelweni lwezinhlangothi ezimbili olungaphelele (2+4). Isithombe sesikhathi sibonisa indawo yesithathu ngakwesobunxele (umugqa onsomi), kanye nama-liberal abekwe kahle (umugqa ophuzi). Mayelana nomdlalo wamadlelandawonye, okungenzeka kakhulu namuhla kungaba okulandelayo:

Idatha ye-Pollytix.eu

Ukuphinde kukhishwe “umfelandawonye omkhulu” phakathi kwentando yeningi yezenhlalo namaKrestu wentando yeningi ebusa iJalimane, kuthokozela iningi, i-CDU kaMerkel njengeqembu elihamba phambili.

Kodwa, kuzoba khona emva kokhetho ezinye izindlela?

Njengoba iqembu le-AfD likhishwe ngokomgomo, lokhu okulandelayo kungacutshungulwa:

Isamba se- amaqembu amathathu "kwesokunxele". Njengamanje mancane amathuba okuba kungabikhona amavoti acishe abe ngu-10% ukuze kuzuze iningi. Empeleni, ukukhuthazwa okusha okumangazayo kuka-Schulz kuphela, okufana nalokhu okwenziwa ebusika, kungabuyisa lokhu okungenzeka.
Abakhululekile, ezisanda kuvuka, sezisondele ekutheni zikwazi ukubuyisela indima yazo yakudala njengehinji. Isamba samavoti abo nakaMerkel sesizozuza iningi. Ubezodinga izihlalo ezimbalwa ngaphezu kwalezo anikezwa zona.
Uma I-CDU/liberals coalition awufinyelelanga izihlalo ezidingekayo, abaHlaza, asebeguqukile eminyakeni yamuva nje baya ezikhundleni ezigxile kakhulu futhi ezisebenzayo, banganikeza amavoti adingekayo kumfelandawonye wezindlela ezintathu.
Kubuye kube nokuqagela, ngokuqondile, okungenzeka umfelandawonye phakathi kweMerkel kanye nemifino uma zombili izinhlangothi zihlangene zithole amaphuzu ambalwa wamaphuzu amavoti amaningi kunalokho okubikezelwe ngokuvota.

Sekusele inyanga nesigamu ukuthi kube nokhetho kanti ibhalansi isengahluka. Ezimweni eziningi umehluko phakathi kwamathuba athile nokunye kuzoncika ezingxenyeni ezimbalwa zeshumi zephesenti lamavoti kanye nezihlalo ezimbalwa ku-Bundestag. Kusekuningi okumele sikunqume.