I-France 28/4: Naphezu kosuku olubi, uMacron ugcina ukuhola kwakhe okunethezekile

Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, kusanda kwenziwa umzuliswano wokuqala wokhetho lwaseFrance, ukuvota kokuqala komzuliswano wesibili, ozoba ngoMeyi 7, kwenziwa esidlangalaleni. Bonke bavumelene ngokuthi uMacron uzothola amavoti aphakathi kuka-60 no-65%, uma kuqhathaniswa nama-35-40% eLe Pen.

Ngale datha, futhi kucatshangelwa ukuthi kwakusele amasonto amabili ngaphambi kokhetho, ngomhlaka 24 Sakha imodeli ngokusho kwayo UMacron ube nethuba elingu-82,1%. ukuphoqa, uma kuqhathaniswa no-17,9% we-Le Pen. Saxwayisa nangaleso sikhathi ukuthi usuku ngalunye olwaludlula ngaphandle kwanoma yimuphi umcimbi obalulekile lwalusebenzela uMacron, lwandisa amathuba akhe okunqoba.

Sifinyelele uLwesihlanu, Ephreli 28. Kakade izinsuku eziyisi-9 kuphela ezisele okhethweni, futhi akukho okushintshile okukhulu. Izolo uLe Pen uthole ukunqoba okuncane, ejatshulelwa esigabeni esifanayo lapho kubhodlozwe khona uMacron. Amavoti akhombisa lokhu ngokuhlehla okumvumela ukuthi asuke ku-38.2% aye ku-40.2%. Lokhu ukuthuthukiswa okuphawulekayo kwamavoti, kodwa amathuba akhe okunqoba kokugcina, ngokusho kwemodeli yethu, akhule ngokulambisa kusukela izolo kuze kube namuhla ngezingxenye eziyisithupha zeshumi, futhi, eqinisweni, aphansi kunalawo ayenawo ngosuku olulandelayo ngemuva komjikelezo wokuqala. . . Futhi isikhathi siphambene nabo. U-Le Pen uzodinga amagalelo amangalisayo kunayizolo ukuze ahlehlise lo mkhuba, izinguquko ezingadala ushintsho olujulile emizweni yabavoti. Uma kungenjalo, uzobona amathuba akho ambalwa ashabalala ngokushesha njengoba izinsuku zihamba.

Ngaphandle kosuku oluhle u-Le Pen abenalo izolo, isilinganiso sethu simbeka kude kakhulu nembangi yakhe ngamaphesenti evoti (40.2% uma iqhathaniswa no-59.8%) futhi emathubeni angempela okunqoba (16.0%).

Inkomba yethu, yiqiniso, akuyona yodwa ethuthukiswayo ngalesi sihloko. Wonke umuntu uyavuma ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi uMacron maningi amathuba okuthi awine kunoLe Pen, kodwa abavumelani nendima edlalwa ukuhamba kwesikhathi kanye namaswans amnyama okungenzeka adlala kule ndaba.

Lokhu kungenye yezindlela ezinamandla kakhulu ezivuna iMacron:

https://twitter.com/TheCrosstab/status/857591311251247105

Futhi lena ngenye yalezo ezinikeza uLe Pen amathuba amaningi:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/857421835687907329

Phakathi kwaleyo 1-2% yamathuba abanye abawanikeza u-Le Pen (futhi empeleni, ithuba lokuthi angalijabulela uma ukhetho lubanjwe namuhla), kanye nama-25% abanye abamnika wona (mhlawumbe enze ihaba umphumela wesikhathi kanye amathuba okuthi "amadada amnyama"), cishe ngokuqinisekile, amathuba ambalwa wangempela ashiywe nguLe Pen.

Futhi, njengesifinyezo sokuthi udaba lunjani, nansi i-tweet evela ku-Kiko Llaneras ehlale inemba:

6/ Ukuze uwine iLe Pen udinga okuthile okwenzekayo. Ihlazo, ihlazo. Mhlawumbe ukubheja kuncike kulokho: kukunika amathuba angu-12%.

- Kiko Llaneras (@kikollan) April 27, 2017