Ingabe i-Brexit iyi-Black Swan?

NgeSonto sinokhetho eSpain futhi ukuvota kuchithe izinyanga ezimbili ezedlule kusitshela into efanayo ngomphumela. Ngokuhlukahluka okuncane, zonke ziye zaqondana.

Nokho, lokho izinhlolo-vo ezingenakubikezela ukufika kwamadada amnyama. Ngo-March 11, 2004, ezintathu ngaphambi kokhetho lwalowo nyaka, ukuhlasela kwamaphekula kwaphawula amavoti abanjwa, kodwa izinga abathonye ngalo kusaphikiswana ngalo nanamuhla. Kwezinye izikhathi kube nezigigaba ezimangazayo phakathi nomkhankaso wokhetho, nakuba zingekho ezibucayi kangako.

Ingabe i-Brexit izosho okufanayo?

Kuyayenga ukucabanga ukuthi kuzoba nethonya. Phela, futhi kwenzeka ezinsukwini ezintathu ngaphambi kokhetho, ngesikhathi esiqondile lapho ukuvota kungasakwazi ukukala imiphumela yabo. Ngisho nama-akhawunti ase-Andoran ngeke abe sesikhathini sokulinganisa ngokunembile ukuthi kuzoba nemiphumela enjani.

Kungenzeka ukuthi umphumela wengqondo usiza i-polarization. Abagcini bemithetho, beshukunyiswa ukwesaba, bazoqinisa ivoti labo, njengoba kwenzeka njalo ezimweni lapho abantu kufanele bazivikele ezinsongweni: baphendukela kulokho okwaziwayo, babalekela okusha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, abasekeli bezinguquko ezijulile kakhulu zesistimu bangabona umbono wabo uqinisekisile ukuthi "yebo ungakwazi" ukuwina okhethweni futhi uguqule izinto. I-Brexit ingabasiza baqinise ukuzibophezela kwabo ezinguqukweni zangempela esikhundleni salokho abakubheka njengezimonyo “zokumiselela” kusuka kuma-C noma imbala i-PSOE.

Uma kunjalo, i-PP ne-UP ingazuza. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, akubonakali sengathi i-Brexit ingakwazi ukuhlanganisa abavoti bamaqembu amabili aphakathi, kodwa awukwazi. Ngaphandle kwalapho ukwesaba kuletha amavoti ku-PSOE futhi kuwasusa ku-UP.

Kunoma yikuphi, ukuziphatha kwabavoti ezinsukwini zamuva kuhlale kuyimfihlakalo. Abanganqumile yibona abanikeza ibhalansi, futhi manje, eSpain, isici esisha sisanda kungena emdlalweni. Namuhla nakusasa kuzoba nezinkulumo eziningi mayelana ne-Brexit, futhi akekho one-wand magic ukwazi ukuthi izoba nomthelela kanjani ekuvoteni okungavunyelwe, uma kunjalo. Ingabe ivoti eliqinile liyophumelela, ingabe isifiso soshintsho olukhulu siyophumelela, noma, ngokuphambene, ingabe ukuzibophezela esivumelwaneni “esigxile kakhulu” kuzovunywa?

NgeSonto, impendulo.