UBiden uhlanganisa inzuzo yakhe ngokumelene noTrump

Ukuqapha esikwenzayo “komkhankaso wangaphambi komkhankaso” wokhetho lukamongameli waseNyakatho Melika ngoNovemba kuletha izindaba ezincane kuleli sonto. Abaningi e-United States bacishe bacabangele ukhetho olulahlekile lukaDonald Trump, ukuthandwa kwawo kuqhubeka ngebhalansi engalungile cishe amaphuzu ayi-15.

Kodwa Akwelulekanga ukukhohlwa isici sesikhathi: Kunezinyanga ezizayo futhi ziningi izinto ezisengenzeka ezingashintsha isimo. Okwamanje, uma ukhetho belubanjwe namuhla, amamodeli anikeza I-Biden phakathi kuka-83% no-94% kungenzeka ukuthi iwine kuTrump. Esibalweni sethu, esethula ukuhlehla kwesilinganiso sesikhathi kuze kube ukhetho, amathuba aseduze: 62% ku-Biden no-38% kuTrump.

Izifunda eziphephile

Ukuhlaziya idatha ngokwezifundazwe, sicabangela okuthile okuqinisekile (amathuba angaphezu kuka-95%) amavoti angu-222 e-Biden (aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) kanye nangu-141 ku-Trump (okubomvu). Kudingeka abangu-270 ukuze uwine ngakho-ke kusengashiwo ukuthi uBiden usezizuzile.

Okuhamba ngasithupha

I-Los izifundazwe eziyisithupha esikulandelayo ikakhulukazi ngoba kwa-EM-electomania sicabanga ukuthi bazoba yi- ukhiye uma kwenzeka kuba nesibopho sokugcina, Bonke bawela ohlangothini lweDemokhrasi njengamanje. Ngabe amaphuzu okuphawula noma “izimo eziphuthumayo.” Ngokusho kwedatha yethu yamanje, ngemuva kokunikeza lezi zimo nezinye ezingabazayo, UBiden uzobe esevele engumongameli ngamavoti angama-303 kwayi-171.

Swing states

Ngamathuba asondele ku-50% kuwo womabili amakhandidethi, sizoba nezifunda ezintathu kuphela ezisele ngalesi sikhathi (izimo eziguqukayo). Ingabe Texas, Iowa kanye Ohio. Iqiniso nje lokuthi uBiden angalindelwa ukuthi abawine likhombisa ukuthi ibhalansi isitshekele kakhulu ivuna yena. Ngakho-ke impi ngalesi sikhathi ivela ezindaweni ezintathu ezinganqumanga nokuthi, noma ngabe uTrump wayezobagcina ekugcineni, ngeke kumsize ukuthi anqobe isikhundla sikamongameli.

Kodwa kusasele izinyanga ezintathu nengxenye kufike ukhetho. UTrump ugcina izinketho ezingama-38%. ngokwemodeli yethu. Akekho osawinile (noma olahlekelwe) noma yini okwamanje.