The Electoral College scenarios
In the race between Trump and Harris, both candidates have safe states, but they need more to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary. Seven key states are at stake, where voting was tight in 2020 or polls show a closer race this year.
Today's polls show that the election could go in favor of either of the two candidates
Neither candidate currently has a lead in enough states to reach the 270 electoral votes needed. Polls in key states show a virtual tie.
If the polls fail in favor of Trump
Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him, even slightly. In 2016 and 2020, he outperformed predictions in swing states, and he could do so again. This is a possibility.
If the polls fail in favor of Harris
If polls are underestimating Harris, she could win more easily. In the 2022 midterm elections, state polls underestimated Democrats, and it is possible that something similar will happen this year. This is a plausible scenario.
How wrong can polls be?
It is common for polls to not match final results, as they are snapshots of a specific point in time and move in a probabilistic scenario with a margin of error. The ranges in this chart show the magnitude of the largest polling error in each state in recent elections, compared to the final polling averages between Harris and Trump.
The latest Harris vs Trump polls
Each of these polls contributes to the averages shown above. The averages of those pollsters that meet certain reliability criteria are given greater weight in the calculation. It is possible to filter by state, toggle to show only selected pollsters, and choose between head-to-head or three-way matches.
How the averages have changed since Biden left office
Arrows to the left indicate an increase in polls for Harris
From Biden to Harris
This chart illustrates how the polling margin has varied throughout the campaign, initially in the Biden-Trump matchup, and currently in the Harris-Trump matchup.
Data from: nytimes
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