Dimokuradiyya primaries (Amurka): menene game da manyan jihohi?

Muna magana da yawa a kwanakin nan Iowa o New Hampshire, jihohin farko da za su gudanar da zaben fidda gwani a Amurka. Don haka Iowa ya yi bikin su a yau (caucus zai "bude" wannan rana, dare a Spain).

Iowa, New Hampshire ko Nevada suna da mahimmanci, saboda za su saita sautin ga duk sauran, amma wakilai 41 da Iowa za su aika zuwa babban taron Demokradiyya a watan Yuli, ko 24 daga New Hampshire, alal misali, kodadde idan aka kwatanta da manyan jihohi.

Babban hudu (California, New York, Texas da kuma Florida), za a aika zuwa babban taron wakilai sama da 1.100, kuma nauyinsu ya kai wanda za su iya ba da daidaito ga kowane ɗan takarar Demokraɗiyya.

Mu sake duba yadda zaben ke cikin su.

California

A cikin mafi yawan jama'a na kungiyar, wanda ya kara da cewa wakilai sama da 400, Sanders yana da matukar amfani. Muna da kuri'u biyu daga 'yan kwanakin da suka gabata wanda tsohon BernieHar ma ya wuce.

California da lu'u lu'u tare da wasu wakilai dari que Za su iya canza hannu don ƴan kuri'u: waɗanda suka rabu sun kai 15% kofa ko tsayawa ƙasa da shi. A yanzu, Biden da Warren suna da alama a sama, amma ... primaries kullum suna ba da mamaki, kuma duk wanda bai kai kashi 15% na kaddara a wannan jiha ba a mafi yawan kididdigar ƙididdiga, zai yi matukar wahala wajen rabon wakilai, kuma da wuya su ma su yi burinsu. nadin dimokradiyya.

Ranar 3 ga Maris za mu sani.

Florida

Florida tana daya daga cikin "jihohin lilo"(jahohi masu yanke hukunci, rabin Democrat, rabin Republican) waɗanda koyaushe ke ba da ma'auni na shugabancin Arewacin Amurka.

Amma yanzu ba muna magana ne game da shugabancin ba, amma "kawai" game da nadin Demokradiyya. Sabbin wuraren da aka sani bayanai Biden yayi fice sosai, yayin da a matsakaita Sanders da Bloomberg sun dan yi kasa da kashi 15%. Idan haka ne, Biden zai ɗauki “tsuntsu,” wataƙila kusan wakilai 200. Idan, a gefe guda, Sanders ko Bloomberg sun kai 15% a yawancin sassan, Biden zai sami kusan 100, sauran kuma za su je ga sauran 'yan takarar biyu.

NEW YORK

Halin hali"babban jari ba na hukuma ba"Na duniya yana da mahimmanci a tseren Demokradiyya, amma karfinta ya ragu saboda, lokacin da za su kada kuri'a a ranar 28 ga Afrilu, sauran jihohi masu yanke hukunci sun riga sun nada wakilai, kuma zaben na iya kusan halaka. A halin yanzu, Biden yana tsaye, kuma muna gani Sanders da Warren sun wuce 15%. Bugu da ƙari, ba mu da bayanai tukuna Bloomberg, wanda zai iya karya kashin kaji a wannan jiha, wanda birni mafi muhimmanci da ya kasance magajin gari tsawon shekaru.

Texas

Babbar jihar kudanci zai kuma zama mai yanke hukunci, domin, ban da haka, tana zabar wakilanta da wuri. A halin yanzu Biden yana da ƙaramin fa'ida, kodayake alamun kuma an fara gano cewa abubuwa na iya canzawa: Bloomberg ya tashi sosai, ko da yake har yanzu yana da nisa daga 15%, yayin da Warren zauna a cikin wani Ina so amma ba zan iya ba, ya zama ruwan dare gare ta a jihohi da dama. Idan Warren da/ko Bloomberg a ƙarshe sun sami sakamako da yawa sama da 15%, rarraba wakilai zai bar Biden da Sanders da ƙasa da 100.

A yanzu An fara kada kuri'a a yammacin yau a Iowa, sannan kuma wakilai 41 masu sassaucin ra'ayi za su fara bayyana mana yadda tsarin karshe na zaben fidda gwani na jam'iyyar Demokradiyar zai kasance, wanda ake ganin yana daya daga cikin wadanda suka fi yin takara a tarihin jam'iyyar.