Ukumangaliswa kunokuthintela uPablo Iglesias ukuba afikelele kurhulumente

Ukuba kukho into enye ecacileyo kubo kwi-Unidos Podemos, kukuba kufuneka bagqithise i-PSOE kwi-26-J ukhetho: ukuqhubela phambili kwiivoti, kwizihlalo, kwaye ngokucacileyo, kungcono.

Kwi-UP baqiqa ngolu hlobo: “Yakube iphunyeziwe indlela yokudlula, okukhona sinenzuzo ethe kratya kwi-PSOE, kokukhona kuya kufuneka ukuba sibe namandla okuthethathethana. Ngokongeza izihlalo ze-PSOE kwezethu, siya kufezekisa uninzi, kuba umthetho we-D'hont uya kusinika amasekela amaninzi nangaphezulu. I-PSOE iya kufuneka isixhase, kuba ukuba sibabetha ngokucacileyo kwaye bakhetha ukuxhasa i-PP, baya kubonakaliswa kwaye batshone. Ukuba abasixhasi, besiya kubenza banyamalale kwimephu kulo naluphi na unyulo, lwengingqi okanye jikelele, olubizwe kamva.”

Ukuqiqa kubonakala kungenakuphikiswa, kodwa kusekelwe kwingcinga yangaphambili: ukuba i-bypass, ngokunika amasekela amaninzi kwi-UP, inceda ibloc yasekhohlo, eya kuthi ngaloo ndlela ifezekise isininzi esicacileyo.

Kodwa ngaba oku kunjalo?

Ngezi ntsuku ezininzi zokuvota zithatha ngokungathandabuzekiyo ukoyiswa kwe-UP kwi-PSOE. Uluvo loluntu, nokuba luncinci kwezopolitiko, lunokuqala ukuyamkela le nto, kwaye kunyulo i-psychology yomvoti ingundoqo. Xa kunjalo, ingaba umvoti wePSOE uya kusabela njani xa beqinisekile ukuba umbutho wabo “liqela elilahlekileyo”?

Ezaziwayo "isiphumo sokutsala" Xa kuvotwa, kubangela ukuba inxalenye yabavoti babalahle abo ibabona njengabalahlekileyo baze bajoyine abo ibabona njengabaphumeleleyo. Ngoko ke, isicwangciso se-UP kufuneka siyinike iivoti ezininzi njengoko unyulo lusondela.

Kodwa kukho iingxaki ezimbini:

Okokuqala: Ukuya kwi-40% yabavoti be-PSOE bathi abayi kuze bavotele i-Unidos Podemos. Ngoko ke, ukuba abaninzi babo baphetha beyishiya i-PSOE ngomhla wonyulo, kungekhona zonke ezo zilahliwe ziya kugqiba kwi-UP. Abanye abavoti bobusoshiyali, bedanile, baya kukhetha ukuzikhwebula. Kwaye abanye banokude bavotele i-Ciudadanos okanye i-PP ukuba ukugatya kwabo i-Podemos kukhulu ngokwenene.
Okwesibini: Ukuthoba iivoti zePSOE kunciphisa inani lamasekela. Ngaba oku kuya kulungiswa kukwanda kwezihlalo eziya kufunyanwa yi-UP?

Eyokuqala kuphela kwezi ngxaki zimbini kufuneka ibe yanele ukwenzela ukuba, ukusuka kwi-UP, akukho mntu unokufuna ukunyuka okwakukhulu kakhulu kwiqela labo: ilahleko ye-PSOE iya kuzuza, nokuba incinci, iCiudadanos okanye i-PP, kwaye uninzi lwasekhohlo olufuna Sinokunyamalala.

Kodwa masingayihoyi loo nto, kwaye sigxininise kweyona meko ilungileyo inokuvela kwi-UP: ukuba zonke iivoti eziphulukeneyo ne-PSOE ziphela zisiya UP.

Ngokutsho kwe umndilili wophando Namhlanje, nge-6 kaJuni, ukuba bekubanjwe unyulo, ezi ziziphumo:

PP: 29,6% yeevoti.

PU: 24,4%

PSOE: 20,8%

C's: 15,0%

Ukuba sisebenzisa i i-electrocalculator egqwesileyo of Lutxana and Johnniezq, we provincialise this data, kwaye ufumane le mephu ilandelayo ebonisa umdlalo wokuqala kwiphondo ngalinye:

I-PSOE iya kuba liqela lokuqala kwamanye amaphondo kunye ne-UP kwamanye. I-PP, kwiindawo ezininzi.

Kodwa ngoku masicinge ukuba i-UP ithatha i-5% eyongezelelweyo yeevoti kwi-PSOE phakathi kwanamhlanje kunye nosuku lonyulo. Kwimeko apho, i-UP iphantse idibanise iivoti kunye nePP, kwaye imephu yeqela lokuqala ngephondo iya kubonakala ngathi:

Amanye amaphondo aphantse atshintshiselwa ngamanye, kwaye akubonakali kukho nasiphi na isiphumo esibonakalayo.

Kodwa ngoku makhe sijonge ukuba ukuhanjiswa kwezihlalo kwahluka njani:

Nangona i-bloc ye-UP + PSOE yongeza ngokuthe ngqo iivoti ezifanayo kwiimeko zombini, ngokudlulisela i-5% yeevoti kwi-PSOE ukuya kwi-UP, ukuhla kwezihlalo ezifunyenwe ngama-socialists akuhlawulwa ngokunyuka kwePodemos. Kwimeko yangoku (i-cheese ngakwesobunxele), i-bloc ekhohlo idlula i-bloc yasekunene ngezihlalo ze-166 ukuya kwi-158. Kodwa ukuba i-sorpasso iqhubela phambili, sivame ukuba kwimeko (ekunene) apho i-right-wing bloc idlula i-left-wing bloc ngo-164 ukuya kwi-160.

Inokwenzeka njani into enje? Ngenxa yokuba ngokuhla kwe-PSOE, eli qela liza kuphulukana nesihlalo salo kuphela kumaphondo amaninzi, kwaye ezo ziseleyo ziya kuwela ngamanye amaxesha kwicala lePP kunye neCiudadanos. Ngoko ke, ukugqithiswa okuphakathi ukusuka kwi-UP ukuya kwi-PSOE (njengaleyo sihlangabezana nayo kule mihla) kunokuba kuhle kwisicwangciso sikarhulumente we-Iglesias. Kodwa ukothuka okugqithisileyo kuxhamlisa amaqela esithathu, ngokusetyenziswa nje komthetho wonyulo, nokuba abathathi nenye yeevoti eziphulukeneyo nePSOE kwinkqubo.

Ihamba ngaphandle kokuthetha ukuba, kwimeko engaphezulu, i-PSOE ayiyi kunika kuphela iivoti kwi-UP, kodwa kunye neCiudadanos kwaye ngaphezu kwayo yonke into yokuyeka. Kwaye ukuba kunjalo, ekhohlo ngoku linokuthi ndlela ntle kulo naliphi na ithemba lesininzi.

Ukuqinisekisa esi siphumo, akukho nto ingcono kunokwenza ukulinganisa okuninzi njengoko ufuna kwi i-electrocalculator egqwesileyo kweli phepha, okanye nakwesiphi na esinye isitulo se-extrapolator: siyakuhlala sifumana isigqibo esifanayo. Ukuba i-Iglesias idinga ukufikelela kwisivumelwano kunye ne-PSOE yokulawula, into yokugqibela enomdla kuyo kukuba yehle ngaphantsi kwe-20% yeevoti.

I-sorpasso iqulethe ngaphakathi kwayo imbewu enetyhefu engathethi ngayo kwiPodemos, inomdla njengoko injalo malunga nemeko: ukuba impumelelo yabo igqithise, iya kubathintela ekubeni benze urhulumente kwaye baya kuyinikezela kubachasi babo.

Amanye amanqaku kolu ngcelele:

I-PP ibambeka kwiCiudadanos

Isiphelo